Yorams' blogs

The Center of Economic Gravity and Israeli National Interest

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for the sake of all Creation
Part 1

We all remember when the world went from a bi-polar, two superpower system to the uni-polar, one single superpower reality that we have been living with these past years.

I believe that we are now going though the change to a multi-polar superpower system. The new diffuse power structure will see the USA declining in importance and several new geographic/national areas of power develop.

Of course chief of these will be the; China & India, Iran and the oil producing money absorbing nations of the Middle Ease.  And maybe even Europe will also qualify.

In this foreseeable future we will be witnessing the decrease of the political, financial, emotional and military assistance that we will be able to realistically expect from our one and only genuine and generous friend, the USA! and a strengthening of all our opponents.  The most recent survey in the US indicated that 70% of Americans believe that Americas commitment to Israel be balanced visa vie the Palestinian/Arab/Muslim world.

A country like India may even be encouraged to make concessions in its international posture to increase the harmony between the Hindu majority and the enormous Muslim minority, numbering hundreds of millions.

China, I believe will simply look to its own perceived national interests.

For the USA there will be many consequences. One of these will be the need to be more careful discerning and focused on how the diminishing economic and political power is used. Each and every cent, vote, proposal investment political and/or economic will have as a corollary demand greater return, less danger.

Not to forget our friends, who are in the process of moving on while a new crew not necessarily as friendly moves in?

Speaking of our Friends in High Places, how can I forget that his Sec of State, also counted among the Friends circle was the one who insisted, demanded and managed, for our own good, to install Egypt as the guardian of the southern Gaza border. Can the next circle of Friends in High Places do any better?

It is inconceivable to me that American governments will not continue to believe that “settlements are a hindrance to peace”, and at the same time continue to support Israeli governments who persist in maintaining and even building in Judea & Samaria.

And then there’s Climate Change: Which in addition to its economic influence is also changing the climate.

What are the likely consequences for Israel if indeed there is less rainfall in our neighborhood? If sea levels do rise, not only in Tel Aviv and its magnificent sea front and other low sea level real-estate but in places like Gaza. In exactly what direction (forgetting policies) can the people there possibly move to escape living in the rising waters? True, they could disperse southward into Sinai where there is plenty of room, but little usable water. I suspect that the governing authority down there in the south is will not be exactly welcoming to a million or more impoverished fundamentalist Muslims.

It will not only be Israel who may suffer from reduced rainfall. The social and economic pressures will not be soothed by increased competition for ever more diminishing usable natural resources. That is; both water and land, which still equals food.

So it is my conclusion that the state of Israel can not relax to the mantra, “Time is in our favor” or the local “Yihea Tov” (It Will Be Good).

By the time these pressures and changes begin to be obvious and manifest it will be too late to make the changes necessary to increase our chances of survival and fulfill our needs to flourish and thrive.

It is not too early in the process to undertake more than the re-branding we are presently involved in. It will take a more fundamental change and a greater ability to engage in serious discussions which transcend what have become the usual national mantras about eternity and divine promise.

We need to enter into deep and difficult conversations; truly for the Sake of Heaven, here on earth, and make evident our ability to effect difficult changes. At this point just to drag people from their concern about who will be the next “Star is Born” champion, or what will be the next criminal investigation launched against which minister or which celebrity will win the greatest popularity rating will be a major accomplishment.

I suspect that there seemed to be a majority consensus for the evacuation of Gaza was that many people were too preoccupied or cynical to even take the time to think deeply about the project. The same might well be true on the subject of some withdrawal from Judea and Samaria and realignment in Jerusalem. The mantras chanted and shouted about Jerusalem being united and under Israeli rule eternally, (La’netich) surely are not generated from a deep honest intellectual investigation of the consequences of that statement/belief.

I can not help but wonder how many of Israelis who believe themselves to be deeply committed to that idea want a neighbor, fellow citizen from Wadi Joz to come strolling down their residential street. How many of the Israelis who will come to a rally supporting our control of Jerusalem for ever will ever visit in the Eastern part of the shared, united city? Even now, in this generation, it is not practical, how many will encourage their children or grandchildren to aspire to these simple, welcoming, neighborly acts.

If there is grumbling by the secular working minority to supporting the large Jewish orthodox community, how enthusiastic will this small income producing population feel about supporting an additional nearly two hundred and fifty thousand impoverished Arab citizens of East Jerusalem and its incorporated suburbs?

The second obvious branch of this train of thought leads to the scattered Jewish communities of Judea and Samaria. Although I do not believe that evacuating the Jewish civilians and ending the settlement project will make any real difference in the Muslim/Arab/Palestinian discourse regarding Israel or the Jews, it certainly can contribute to lessening,  making less frequent and less charged the unpleasant encounter between Arab and Jew, living Between The River and The Sea. It will also allow us to focus our limited defense capabilities on our indisputable international border. In addition we will make clear to our selves, and highlight our consensus on what exactly we agree are the borders we are willing to fight, kill and die for.

It is time we begin to make decisions and engage in discussions on what it is WE want, WE need; WE require in order to fulfill our destiny. It is not an empire of land! It is not control over more other peoples it is not economic greatness or military might.

It is our ability to create a just society, a righteous and holy community dedicated to the welfare of ourselves and all creation.

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