Steve Kramer: The Axis of Resistance is No More
There was a time, not so long ago, when the Iranian mullahs seemed to be on top of the world. Their vision of an Iranian Caliphate stretching from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean Sea was succeeding. Iran, Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon – all were lined up and ready with Gaza to activate Iran’s “Ring of Fire” circling Israel. Israel’s destruction by the “axis of resistance” would have made Iran the preeminent power in the Middle East, eclipsing both Turkey and Egypt.
Hampering Iran’s plans, to say the least, have been many assassinations of Israel’s enemies (partial list):
Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas political leader, killed in July 2024 in Tehran, Iran;
Mohammed Deif, Head of Hamas’ military wing, (Israel said it killed in July 2024 in Gaza, not confirmed by Hamas);
Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s political and military leader, was killed in Sept. 2024 in Beirut, Lebanon;
Yahya Sinwar, Hamas political and military leader, was killed in Oct. 2024 in Rafah, Gaza.
(https://www.axios.com/2024/10/20/israel-assassinations-sinwar-hamas-hezbollah)
When the IDF invaded the city of Rafah on the Egyptian border in May 2024, the threat from Hamas was substantially reduced. The IDF closed off the Philadelphi Corridor, the main entry for materiel supplied to Hamas’ military machine. The fall of Iran’s Ring of Fire strategy continued when thousands of Lebanese handheld pagers and hundreds of walkie-talkies exploded on September 17 and 18, killing or wounding the lead echelon of Hezbollah’s highly vaunted military machine.
It should be remembered that before the massacre of Israelis (and others) on October 7, 2023, Hamas was believed to be invincible as an “idea,” as if Nazism couldn’t be defeated in WW2. True, Hamas wasn’t considered an existential threat, but Hezbollah certainly was: its 150,000 rocket/missile inventory was feared to be able to annihilate hundreds, if not thousands of Israelis if a full-blown war broke out. Adding to Israel’s dread was Iran’s formidable, Russian-supplied missile defense, which could stop Israeli warplanes from penetrating the country, allowing Iran to resupply its formidable proxy armies in Yemen, Gaza, Syria, and Lebanon. These fears over our enemies’ prowess all proved to be overhyped. This was proved on October 26, 2024, when Israel, retaliated to an Iranian attack of missiles, rockets, and drones almost completely wiped out Iran’s defensive capabilities in several successive attacks.
This unwarranted apprehension had infected Israel’s leaders and much of the population to the extent that Israel couldn’t steel itself to pull the trigger against its enemies. What a difference Israel’s last several months of aggressive combat have made. IRAN’S PROXIES ARE GONE!
With a much friendlier American administration set to take power in January, coupled with the weakened positions of Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran, Israel is in a commanding position to preserve its position as a potent state in the fractious Middle East, and the region’s only democracy. This fact has been augmented by the surprising and unexpected overthrow of the Assad regime on December 8 – another loss for Iran.
Nevertheless, it’s “early days” here. Syria’s new leaders could very likely threaten Israel more than the Assad regime did. The Kurds in northern Syria may attempt to forge their own, overdue state. And worries about Turkey and Egypt, which both are increasingly antagonistic towards Israel (especially Turkey), are currently overshadowed by ending the wars with Hamas and Hezbollah. Not only that, Jordan’s monarchy is threatened; the possible ouster of King Abdullah could lead to unexpected troubles and/or opportunities.
Despite that, Israel’s position as of today is much better than we may have hoped even a half year ago. The destructive Iranian “crescent” surrounding Israel no longer exists and a stronger American government is in the wings. Nevertheless, we’ll have to wait and see what develops from the December 8 revolution in Syria, and any other unforeseen events which may devolve from it.
