Mark Okrent & Steve Ornstein – A Path to a Stable Zionist Government: Eisenkot as Prime Minister, with a Graceful Exit for Netanyahu
With nearly 90 percent of the ballots counted from Israel’s October 27 election, the arithmetic is clear and unforgiving. The Netanyahu-led bloc sits at roughly 53 seats. The change bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, together with B’Yachad, the Democrats, and Yisrael Beytenu, holds about 48. Arab-led lists account for the remaining 19. Neither major camp reaches the 61 seats required for a majority, and neither has a straightforward route to one without relying on partners that large parts of the public—and many of the parties themselves—have repeatedly said they do not want as the foundation of a stable government
The country has spoken in favor of a Zionist government that can govern effectively. Turnout was the highest in decades. Voters rejected the status quo of the outgoing coalition while also declining to hand the opposition a clear mandate on its own. The public appears exhausted by the prospect of another fragile arrangement held together by Haredi parties whose draft exemptions remain a source of deep societal tension, by the more radical elements of the right whose positions complicate international and security management, or by Arab parties whose full inclusion still triggers strong resistance among many Zionist voters.
This leaves a narrow but real opening for something more durable.
The most coherent path is a Zionist unity government headed by Gadi Eisenkot as prime minister. President Isaac Herzog would facilitate a direct conversation with Benjamin Netanyahu. The offer on the table would be total immunity from his ongoing legal proceedings, conditioned on his retirement from politics. In return, Likud would join the four opposition parties that constitute the change bloc. The resulting coalition would command approximately 75 seats—well above the threshold for stability and drawn entirely from parties that accept the basic Zionist framework of the state.
Such an arrangement addresses the central constraints. Eisenkot, a former IDF chief of staff, has emphasized national service and military conscription as core priorities; those positions align with the platform of several parties in the change bloc and would give the government a clear mandate on the draft question that has paralyzed previous coalitions. Netanyahu’s departure would remove the personal and legal overhang that has defined Israeli politics for years, while allowing Likud’s substantial voter base to remain inside a governing coalition rather than relegated to permanent opposition. Herzog’s role as mediator is consistent with the presidency’s traditional function of facilitating government formation when the Knesset is deadlocked.
An optional expansion exists if Ra’am is prepared to meet specific conditions: formal recognition of Israel as the nation-state of the Jewish people, and support for a system of national or alternative service that applies to all citizens, including Arab Israelis and the ultra-Orthodox. Under those terms, the coalition could grow to roughly 82 seats. That would represent an even broader base, but only if the conditions are met in advance and in good faith; without them, the preference should remain the narrower but more cohesive 75-seat Zionist government.
No arrangement is cost-free. Likud members would need to accept a prime minister from outside their ranks and a political future without Netanyahu. Parties in the change bloc would need to govern alongside a large Likud contingent whose internal dynamics will shift once Netanyahu is no longer the dominant figure. The Haredi parties and the more radical right-wing lists would move into opposition, where they could continue to represent their constituencies without holding the balance of power. Arab parties that do not meet the stated conditions would likewise remain outside.
The alternative is prolonged caretaker governance, repeated attempts at unstable coalitions, or another election. None of those outcomes serves the country’s interest in security, economic management, or social cohesion after years of division. A Zionist government of roughly 75 seats, led by Eisenkot and including Likud after Netanyahu’s retirement with immunity, offers the clearest route to the stability the electorate has signaled it wants. The numbers do not currently support any other stable Zionist configuration. The political will to accept this one remains to be tested, but the logic is straightforward.
