In-Depth Issues:

Iran’s Supreme Leader Is Unconscious and Receiving Treatment in Iran – Gabrielle Weiniger (The Times-UK)
Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is incapacitated and receiving medical treatment in the city of Qom, according to a diplomatic memo based on American and Israeli intelligence.
It suggests that the son of the killed leader Ali Khamenei is unconscious and being treated for a “severe” medical condition.

Houthis Belatedly Enter War after Their Capabilities Were Severely Degraded& nbsp;- Ismaeel Naar (New York Times)
When Israel and the U.S. attacked Iran, the Houthis in Yemen stayed largely on the sidelines for nearly a month before launching a missile at Israel on March 28.
Their hesitation, experts say, suggested that they had been weakened by last year’s sustained 55-day bombardment of U.S. and Israeli strikes.
“The supply chain has degraded, smuggling routes have been choked off, and some of their missile variants require imported propellants that are no longer flowing reliably,” said Fatima Abo Alasrar, a Yemeni analyst.
“They were deciding whether to spend down reserves they cannot replenish.”

Israeli-Iranian TV Star Advocates for an End to Iran’s Repressive Regime – Gabrielle Weiniger (The Times-UK)
Sogand Fakheri left Iran aged six and went on to star in the hit Apple TV drama “Tehran,” which focuses on the shadow war between Mossad and the IRGC.
Fakheri, 24, plays a young conservative woman loyal to the Iranian regime who falls in love with her commander in the IRGC’s Basij paramilitary force and goes on to betray her family.
“It was really hard for me,” she says of watching the uprising quelled by the Basij militia.
“I had to learn everything about the Basij for the role….I realized the Basij, is everywhere. They are in your universities, in your schools, and they try to have a great impact on youth. So you see how their brainwashing works.”

By day she works as head of the Persian media desk at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, and has become a vocal influencer and online advocate – in Persian and in Hebrew – of an Iran free from the repressive regime.
“My hope is that we will make…the right conditions for the people in Iran to be able to go back to the streets, because this regime won’t just fall because of our attacks. It will fall because the Iranian people want it to fall.”

“So what I hear right now from Iranians is that ‘it’s OK, just keep the [Israeli and the U.S.] air force here so we can go out in the streets – just be with us, escort us from the sky.'”
“This war is necessary….All I have is bad words to describe the IRGC. They are just so brutal, and the only way to bring them down is by outside forces, because the Iranian people are not armed.”
“They have no weapons to fight back. And when they try to fight back, they get murdered in the streets.”

Israel’s Elbit Systems Wins $750 Million Greek Artillery Deal – Dean Shmuel Elmas (Globes)
Israeli defense electronics company Elbit Systems announced Monday that it has been awarded a contract worth $750 million to supply 36 Precise & Universal Launching System (PULS) artillery rocket systems to Greece’s armed forces.

Elbit will supply PULS launchers and a comprehensive munition package, which includes training rockets, operational precision-guided rockets for various ranges, and loitering munitions.
Elbit will collaborate with local Greek industries for the production of the system.
Security relations between Israel and Greece have strengthened significantly in recent years.
The systems will reportedly be stationed on Greece’s northeastern border with Turkey, and on islands in the Aegean Sea.

• Trump Has Told Iran It Must Open the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday Evening – Tyler Pager
  President Trump said Monday that a ceasefire proposal by mediators between the U.S. and Iran was a “significant step,” but warned that it was “not good enough” as his deadline of Tuesday evening for a deal approached. Iran has rejected any proposal for a ceasefire. If Iran does not agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday at 8 p.m. Eastern time, Trump has threatened to launch a massive attack targeting bridges and power plants. But the president has also extended deadlines in recent weeks. (New York Times)
• See also Hopes Fade for Deal with Iran Ahead of Deadline – Robbie Gramer
  Negotiators are pessimistic Iran will bend to meet President Trump’s demand to reopen the Strait of Hormuz before his Tuesday night deadline. (Wall Street Journal)
• See also Israeli Officials Do Not Expect a Ceasefire in Iran Anytime Soon – Zvika Klein
  A senior Israeli official told the Jerusalem Post on Monday that Jerusalem did not expect a ceasefire to take shape in the coming days. The official said Israel and the U.S. were now more closely aligned than at any previous point. (Jerusalem Post)
• Trump’s Board of Peace Gives Hamas Disarmament Deadline – Adam Rasgon
  President Trump’s Board of Peace is demanding that Hamas finalize an agreement to demilitarize Gaza by the end of this week, according to four diplomats briefed on the talks. The demand by the international body established to oversee the six-month-old ceasefire in Gaza would require Hamas to agree to eventually give up all its weapons and share maps of its under ground tunnel network.
• The deadline reflects the Trump administration’s eagerness to secure a lasting ceasefire in Gaza and its growing impatience with Hamas. The U.S. and Israel have conditioned the reconstruction of Gaza on Hamas relinquishing its arsenal. (New York Times)

• Israel Warns Iranians to Avoid Trains – Elisha Ben Kimon
  The IDF’s Persian-language spokesperson on Tuesday warned civilians in Iran: “For your safety, we ask that you refrain from using and traveling by train throughout Iran until 21:00 Iran time. Your presence on trains and near railway lines endangers your life.” Military correspondent Ron Ben-Yishai said the warning likely indicates preparations for strikes on railway infrastructure, including bridges and junctions.
• Meanwhile, the IDF said it carried out another strike in Shiraz targeting a petrochemical complex described as one of the last remaining facilities producing critical chemical components for explosives and ballistic missiles. “In parallel, the IDF struck a large-scale ballistic missile site in northwestern Iran. From this site, missile units launched dozens of missiles toward Israel.”  (Ynet News)
• U.S. Thanks Israel for Its Role in Pilot Rescue Operation – Tzvi Jasper
  U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to thank Israel for its role in rescuing the two U.S. Air Force crewmembers whose plane had been shot down in Iran, the ambassador said on X on Monday, adding “IDF & Mossad were helpful partners in the mission.”
  The mission relied in part on Israeli intelligence and tactical support to ensure the airmen were extracted before they could be captured by Iranian forces. Sources said the IDF, acting in cooperation with U.S. forces, launched a series of strikes against Iranian targets that were strategically designed to act as a diversion, drawing Iranian security forces away from the crash site and toward other areas. (Jerusalem Post)
• Israel Launches Fresh Strikes in Beirut – Emanuel Fabian
  Israeli strikes rained down on Beirut and across southern Lebanon on Monday in attacks on Hizbullah infrastructure. Hizbullah continued to launch rocket and drone attacks on Israeli targets throughout the day. (Times of Israel)
• Gunmen Open Fire near Israeli Consulate in Istanbul, Three Attackers Killed – Mathilda Heller
  Gunmen opened fire near the building housing the Israeli consulate in Istanbul on Tuesday. Three attackers were shot and killed by Turkish security forces, while two police officers were injured. The consulate has been closed for at least two years and is currently unstaffed, a spokesperson for Israel’s Foreign Ministry confirmed. (Jerusalem Post)

• Israel and U.S. Defeat of Iran and Its Proxies Reshapes the Region – Brig.-Gen. (res.) Danny Van Buren
  The modern meaning of victory cannot rely on past paradigms – such as a formal surrender or the total destruction of the defeated side. The parameters for defining victory must be assessed over time, based on changes in the regional and geopolitical reality created by the war, not solely on whether the enemy retains the ability to cause harm.
  A definition of the current campaign as a “decisive victory” would rest on three components: military success, a favorable political and strategic shift, and a cognitive change that replaces an existing narrative with a new one. By these measures, Israel and the U.S. are clearly prevailing in the current campaign.
• From a military perspective, Iran and its proxies have suffered a severe blow across all fronts. Leadership chains in Iran, Hizbullah, Hamas and the Houthis have been eliminated. Weapons stockpiles and nuclear, naval, air and ballistic capabilities have been significantly damaged. Areas used to launch ground attacks against Israel are now under IDF control.
  Iran’s ability to carry out its plan to destroy Israel through nuclear and large-scale ballistic capabilities, along with proxy plans to seize parts of the country, has been disrupted. British military historian Basil Liddell Hart argued that victory is achieved not by destroying enemy forces, but by disrupting their plans.
  From a political and strategic perspective, the war against Iran has exposed its true nature as a terrorist state led by a fundamentalist regime. Post-war Iran will be militarily, economically and diplomatically weakened.
• Iran’s proxy organizations are already facing growing delegitimization among populations in Lebanon and Gaza. Without Iranian backing, Hizbullah and Hamas are likely to weaken significantly. The narrative of Iran as an untouchable regional power has been shattered, being replaced by a narrative of Israel as a regional power, commanding respect and deterrence among its neighbors and demonstrating resilience.
• The writer, former Chief IDF Reserve Officer, is a research fellow at the Israel Center for Grand Strategy.  (Ynet News)
• U.S. Shouldn’t Negotiate with Iran until It Realizes How Badly It’s Losing – Editorial
  On Monday, Iran rejected an intermediate ceasefire framework and resisted any immediate move to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran’s refusal should be seen as evidence that the regime still believes time, pressure on global energy markets, and outside fears of escalation can rescue it from a deteriorating position.
  Iran remains dangerous, but danger is not the same thing as strength. It has demonstrated an ability to inflict pain, but not an ability to force an American or Israeli strategic retreat. Their military operations continue against Iranian targets.
• Iran is outmanned, outgunned, and outclassed in any sustained contest with the U.S. and Israel combined. Yet it continues to make demands as if it is holding the cards and that the U.S. should be the one begging for concessions. If Tehran refuses to negotiate in a way that reflects the battlefield, then the U.S. and Israel should continue degrading the regime’s capabilities in recognition that the current diplomacy is detached from reality.
• There is no virtue in reaching an agreement that allows Iran to emerge claiming it stared down a superior force and won better terms. The correct policy is to continue the campaign until Tehran surrenders the illusion of leverage. (Jerusalem Post)

• The war in Iran struck a regime already burdened by a series of major setbacks over the past three years. The joint U.S.-Israeli attack became possible only after those earlier setbacks changed the la ndscape. The Islamic Republic is now in direct confrontation with the world’s most formidable military power, the U.S., and the region’s strongest army, Israel. Why should the regime not survive the bombing campaign as it has survived so many earlier shocks? The Islamic Republic says it is winning the war. History will deliver its answer soon enough.
• For years, the Islamic Republic spoke of control over four Arab capitals, of a Shia crescent, and of strategic depth. It presented itself as a power on the march – expanding, advancing, and shaping the region around itself. When Assad fell, when Syria was lost, and when the proxies took crippling blows, that image began to collapse. What had been presented as strategic depth looked increasingly like an expensive illusion.
• Israel’s attack in June 2025 exposed the gap between propaganda and reality. For years, Ali Khamenei and his IRGC commanders boasted about indigenous air- defense systems. They told Iranians that even the most sophisticated U.S. and Israeli aircraft could not operate over Iran. Billions were spent developing these systems and building an image of invulnerability. That myth collapsed on first contact with reality when the 12-day war began.
• The 12-day war shattered the regime’s image of competence, control, and strength for millions of Iranians. Much of the population that opposed the regime saw it humiliated and were openly pleased to see it struck so hard. At the same time, parts of the regime’s own support base were stunned to see Israeli bombers operate over Iran with such ease.
• The events of Jan. 8-9, 2026, marked a decisive shift in Iran’s political landscape. In Tehran, an estimated 1.5 million people took to the streets, with similar scenes repeated in 400 cities, with total participation reaching 5 million. The state responded with lethal force that killed 36,500 people in 48 hours. The scale of the violence shattered the narrative that the Islamic Republic still ruled with some measure of public consent. A state that still commands genuine consent does not need to kill on such a scale to clear the streets.
• The scale of the damage from the Israeli-U.S. military operation that began on Feb. 28 is now impossible to ignore. The Supreme Leader is dead, along with more than fifty senior IRGC commanders. If the war ends without the immediate fall of the regime, many will label it a defeat for the U.S. and Israel. But battlefield metrics are a poor measure of political reality. The economy is in dire condition. Sanctions will not disappear.
• Political systems do not always collapse during war. Often, they collapse in the aftermath, when military failure gives way to elite fracture and a society no longer willing to live as before.The writer is ex ecutive editor at Iran International TV.