for the sake of all Creation
In the past few days and weeks there have been a few more awakening news stories about Israeli intentions to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. One had to do with a mass exercise by the Israel Air Force (IAF) in which reportedly about one hundred aircraft, mostly F-15’s and F-16’s flew non stop to Greece (the same distance as to Iran). This exercise involved mid-air refueling and the practice of other long distance technological capabilities.
My speculation, (or did I it read it?) is that a window of opportunity will be created between the elections in November and the inauguration in January, that someone might try and take advantage of to attack Iran.
I am disturbed that the complexity of the Iranian conundrum does not seem to receive appropriate coverage. Most of the issue is discussed in the most simplistic terms. “We will not tolerate an Iran armed with nuclear weapons” is the mantra being repeated by US officials, French President Sarkozy Monday in the Knesset, as well by a few other European leaders, and of course by some Israeli’s as well.
I believe that all of these well meaning individuals do not appreciate some of the more subtle aspects of this problem.
For one the ability to produce nuclear weapons resides in more than just the physical presence of the required hardware. The real secret sits firmly between the ears of a number of individuals who have managed to learn the “tricks” of the process.
While the hardware may be destroyed, creating a time out in the production schedule, the essential knowledge will remain firmly locked within the skull bones of most of the current personnel, who would be perfectly capable at any time in the future to retrieve the knowledge and re-start the process.
Next I think of the motivation which also can not be bombed out of existence.
Let us remember back, to the 1930’s, to the far away European continent. A rising militant political force was gaining strength in Italy. In no small part the successful strategy of bring the masses to rallying was its various militant programs. I am referring to the glorious memories of Imperial Rome, and the illusion that those times could be recreated. Glory would once again fall on the inhalants of the land!
In the Iranian case we are also dealing with the group memory of the great Persian Empire. If we listen carefully I think we can hear them now: “Once we ruled vast areas and numerous peoples and imposed our culture and power. Surely we can do it again! NOW!” In the modern world a few nuclear weapons can make grant even a medium sized country power to impose its agenda on the world around it. When we add the Shia’a / Sunni competition for domination and influence in the Muslim world…well that it evidently enough motivation to invest the enormous financial social and diplomatic resources necessary.
And let us not forget the pride!
It is not encouraging to remember, but the history we are familiar with has proven that sanctions rarely work, especially when there is a lot of money available to those who break the group solidarity. It did not work with Japan in the 1930’s/40’s when there was a call to embargo shipments of scrap steel in response to Japan’s atrocities in China.
Certainly Nazi German did not suffer from an all encompassing economic isolation. The Soviet Union and China were also able to continue to repress their populations and neighbors without too much economic suffering.
