Jack Cohen – Arab World in Disarray
Many Arab countries are in disarray, Lebanon, Libya, Syria, Iraq, Yemen. One must ask why, when the rest of the world is comparatively peaceful? Of the 22 Arab countries, few are without violent conflict, perhaps only the Gulf States that have chosen modernization and westernization as their path.
Lebanon is reaching a peak of becoming another failed Arab state. The violent clashes between tens of thousands of demonstrators and the police in Beirut yesterday reached the point where the state is no longer functioning. This might be called the Hong Kongization of Lebanon. The basic problem is that the economy of Lebanon has failed because the political class have been too involved in internal fighting. The populace has realized that fighting between Shia, Sunni, Christian, and Druze has bled the country dry. The existence of Hezbollah as the main military force in Lebanon that follows the orders of the Ayatollahs of Iran has undermined the sovereignty of the country.
There is a meeting going on in Germany overseen by Chancellor Merkel herself to try to bring peace to Libya. Since the overthrow of Qaddafi there has been continued fighting in Libya that has devolved down to two groups, the recognized government of Libya that controls one-third of the country and has its base in the east in what was formerly Cyrenaica, and the strong man Gen. Haftar controlling two-thirds of the country, whose main base is Tripoli in the west, what was formerly Tripolitania. But, there are so many outside forces involved that a resolution seems impossible. Turkey supports the Government side, while Russia supports Haftar, and you can see that both of these powers are playing a power game, hoping to expand their influence in North Africa. Also, Italy, which was the former colonial power, and Greece are involved.
Syria is a total mess, with Russia and Turkey on opposite sides of the fighting going on in the last remaining stronghold of insurgents in Idlib province. Another 250,000 civilians are moving towards the Turkish-Syrian border, and civilian casualties are increasing. There is no possibility of a peaceful resolution of this conflict. Iraq and Yemen are both in states of war, with Iranian proxies trying to take them over for the Shia side, while the Sunni make a stand against them. Even Egypt is fighting a terrorist insurrection based in Sinai and the North African (Maghreb) countries Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia, are all tied up in local violent clashes.
Israel is an island of relative calm in the whole Middle East, although beset by the Palestinian threat from Gaza and the Iranian threat from the north, Syria and Lebanon. Given the chronic violence and breakdown of society in most of the Arab Middle East, does it make sense to any thinking person to establish another Arab State, supposedly called Palestine, in the midst of this mess. It would only be a weak failed state that attracts terrorists like a magnet. So much for the concept of a two-state solution!
