Newly inaugurated Iranian President Hassan Rouhani spoke to the United Nations General Assembly this evening, triggering debates among analysts about the degree to which the revolutionary-era cleric is able or willing to moderate Iran’s aggressive foreign policy structure.
An op-ed written by Rouhani and published in the Washington Post had raised expectations that Rouhani would robustly seek constructive engagement with the West. The speech was broadly perceived as falling short of expectations. NBC News Associate Producer Ali Weinberg suggested that it “seemed like there was a lot more language of conciliation in Rouhani’s op-ed than there was in [his] speech,” a point echoed by Washington Examiner White House correspondent Susan Crabtree. Jonathan Schanzer, vice president of research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, described the speech as “a bit more defiant” than he expected and ultimately concluded that “the tone of his tweets did not match the spirit of his speech.” Richard Haass, the president of the Council on Foreign Relations, tried to read Rouhani’s tone as an index to Iranian politics. Haass understood the speech – which he noted lacked either a positive signal to the U.S. or any specifics, and was marked by a “combative tone” – as evidence of strong opposition inside Iran to nuclear talks. Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had this weekend strongly warned engagement proponents to be wary, and U.S. lawmakers speculate that intervention by Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei squashed a potential handshake between Rouhani and President Barack Obama.
Congressman Ed Royce, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, has become the latest lawmaker to express skepticism regarding the prospect of early sanctions relief for Iran, and has introduced bipartisan legislation with his counterpart Rep. Eliot Engel calling for more sanctions against the Islamic republic. CNN reports the Congressman as emphasizing that “tough sanctions are the only reason Iran is considering diplomatic talks,” and quotes him demanding that Iran agree “to give up its nuclear program, give up its enrichment, [and] give up its weapons-making capability.” Engel echoed the point, telling the Daily Beast that sanctions relief would require that Iran take “tangible” steps toward dismantling its nuclear program, including halting its installation of uranium-enriching centrifuges and its development of its plutonium-related heavy water activity. On the Senate side, Sens. Robert Menendez and Lindsey Graham warned that Iranian negotiators have used past diplomatic talks “as a subterfuge for progress on its clandestine nuclear program,” similarly called on Iran to terminate its nuclear weapons program, and urged President Barack Obama to demand verifiable action from Tehran. Menendez also released a statement after Rouhani’s speech asserting that “words must be followed by action.” Last month 76 senators signed a letter demanding that the President take a harder line against Iran’s nuclear program.
Iran’s newly inaugurated President Hassan Rouhani made a speech to the U.N. General Assembly. Rouhani has been on a charm offensive in recent weeks, which has been celebrated by some analysts and diplomats but left others skeptical.
The White House had already labeled Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s charm offensive as “clearly not sufficient” and demanded results. They’re not the only ones. Gary Samore, who until a few months ago was President Barack Obama’s top adviser on arms control and weapons of mass destruction, told the Washington Post that “charm alone is insufficient.”
Instead the international community is going to be looking at three overarching issues to judge whether Rouhani is either willing or able to create a more moderate Iran:
(1) Foreign policy
(2) Regarding foreign policy more specifically, how the new president will act regarding Iran’s nuclear program.
(3) Domestic policy
Thanks to Omri Ceren, The Israel Project
(1) Foreign policy
Much attention has focused on Rouhani’s willingness to change Iran’s foreign policy, even beyond the country’s stance on nuclear weapons. The degree to which he is willing or able to do so is arguably the critical question that the U.S. is looking to answer in the coming weeks.
* Syria – One area in which there is little hope for change is in Iran’s critical support for the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria, which is responsible for a war that has killed over 100,000 people and seen the Syrian army use chemical weapons. Indicators suggest that Rouhani will continue to support the Syrian regime: Rouhani says as much explicitly, Iranian officials affirm the same policy, and Iran under Rouhani has actually done so.
Click here for TIP’s factsheet on the topic.
* Israel – Another area in which there is little hope for change is in Iran’s commitment to Israel’s destruction. Rouhani’s rhetoric – both during and since his election – has been consistent in its hostility toward the Jewish state. It’s been echoed in recent weeks by other prominent members of Iran’s military and parliament. Click here for TIP’s factsheet on the topic.
(2) Nuclear program
The U.N.’s nuclear watchdog has declared that Iran’s nuclear program includes “strong indicators of possible nuclear weapon development”. The program includes efforts to enrich uranium and plutonium, as well as to develop warheads and missiles capable of carrying those warheads.
Iran will be expected to halt and reverse its work across these areas. That will involve stopping all existing uranium enrichment and plutonium-related heavy water activity, per the demands of the United Nations Security Council. Reassuring the international community will also require halting the installation of new uranium and plutonium-related technology, removing its current stockpile of 20-percent level enriched uranium from Iran, and opening up the country’s Parchin military facility – where it is widely believed Iran carried out work related to developing nuclear warheads – to inspectors.
* Negotiations overview – There are several reasons why analysts worry that Rouhani and Tehran are playing for time, and why they fear Rouhani either won’t or can’t make genuine concessions: what he’s already said, what Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will and won’t let him do, most especially, his history of using negotiations to stall the West and advance Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Click here for TIP’s factsheet on the topic.
* Uranium enrichment and plutonium-related activities – Iran has enrichment facilities scattered all over the country, and analysts fear that the regime is pursuing both uranium and plutonium based nuclear weapons. Iran is rapidly approaching some ‘hard deadlines’ – points after which action will become impossible – on both tracks. Click here for TIP’s factsheet on the topic.
* Warhead development – Tehran is making steady progress in developing ballistic missiles capable of striking Israel, Europe, and the United States. Tehran is using its space program as a cover in order to make substantial advances on what is already an arsenal enabling Iran to strike as far as Israel and Europe. Click here for TIP’s factsheet on the topic.
* Ballistic missile development – Iran’s suspected efforts to develop warheads have involved efforts to develop or acquire technology both to detonate nuclear warheads and miniaturize those warheads so they can be placed atop missiles. Click here for TIP’s factsheet on the topic.
(3) Domestic policy
The recent release of 80 Iranian political prisoners has brought renewed attention to what, if any, substantial and sustained changes newly inaugurated Iranian president Hassan Rouhani will make to the Iranian prison system. Iran routinely ranks among the world’s worst abusers of human rights, imposing severe restrictions on civil liberties and routinely cracking down on political dissidents. Click here for TIP’s factsheet on the topic.
