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Rami Dabbas – The main conflict in the Middle East is no longer between the Arabs and Iran.
While the Arab world was the political heart of the Middle East, non-Arab powers now play a major role in the region.
For a long time, the main conflict in the Middle East was unfolding between the Arab countries and Iran. However, this has happened in the past. Now the competition in the Middle East is between three non-Arab competitors: Iran, Turkey and Israel.
While the Arab world was the political heart of the Middle East, non-Arab powers now play a major role in the region. The Arabs find themselves in a vulnerable position as Iran expands its influence and the United States shrinks its commitments. This weakness in facing the Iranian threat lies at the heart of the historic “Abraham Agreements” between the UAE and Israel.
But this agreement represents leverage against Turkey as much as it is against Iran. Contrary to what Donald Trump has said, this deal does not symbolize a new, more peaceful Middle East, but only emphasizes the increasing rivalry between Arabs, Iranians, Israelis and Turks. Indeed, it could lead to larger and more dangerous arms races and regional wars.
Iran has long been known for its desire to possess nuclear capabilities and use proxies to influence the Arab world. But Turkey, which has become an unpredictable violator of stability over a much wider area, is a relatively new phenomenon. Aware that matters do not align with its Western partners, Turkey now accepts more assertively its Islamic past. Her claims about the influence that Turkey had in the areas that were under the control of the Ottoman Empire could no longer be dismissed as empty rhetoric. Turkish ambition is now a force to be reckoned with.
For example, Turkey now controls part of Syria, has influence in Iraq, and is resisting Iranian influence in both Damascus and Baghdad. Turkey has intensified its military operations against the Kurds in Iraq and accused Iran of providing asylum to Turkey’s Kurdish opponent, the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).
Turkey participated in the civil war in Libya, and recently intervened decisively in the conflict in the Caucasus between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. Officials in Ankara are also looking to expand their role in the Horn of Africa and Lebanon, while Arab rulers are concerned about Turkey’s support for the Muslim Brotherhood and its demands for a vote in Arab politics.
Each of the three non-Arab countries justifies such violations by the need to ensure security, but there are also economic motives: for example, access to the Iraqi market for Iran or favorable positions for Israel and Turkey in developing rich gas fields in the Mediterranean.
As expected, Turkish expansion is at odds with Iran’s regional interests in the Levant and the Caucasus, and both countries are at odds with Russian interests. The Kremlin’s influence in the Middle East is not limited to the conflicts in Libya and Syria, as well as in Nagorno-Karabakh in the Caucasus, but extends into the diplomatic arena from OPEC to Afghanistan. Moscow maintains close ties with all the major players in the region, at times leaning in favor of one and then the other. It remains unclear what it wants from the Middle East, but with less interest from the United States, Moscow’s intricate communications network will play a large role in shaping the region’s future.
Israel has also expanded its presence in the Arab world. In 2019, Trump recognized Israel’s claims to the Golan Heights for half a century, and annexation of parts of the West Bank remains, in the background, a hypothetical threat. However, the “Ibrahim Accords” suggest that the Arabs are willing to turn a blind eye to this in order to strengthen their position. They want to compensate for America’s declining interest in the Middle East in an alliance with Israel against Iran and Turkey. They see Israel as a pillar that will help them in their big game for influence in the region.
Tensions between Iran and Israel continue unabated as Iran penetrates deeper and deeper into the Arab world. The two countries are fighting a war of attrition in Syria and in cyberspace, just as Israel is doing everything in its power to disrupt Iran’s nuclear and missile programs.
Turkey’s current regional position, which covers Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and the Horn of Africa, directly contradicts the policies pursued by Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt.
Meanwhile, Turkey’s relations with Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt have deteriorated over the past ten years. Iran supports Hamas against Israel, and Turkey followed suit, but also angered Arab rulers by supporting the Muslim Brotherhood.
All this indicates that the driving force in the Middle East is not ideology or religion, but old-fashioned “real politics”. If Israel strengthens the position of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, those who feel threatened by these countries, such as Qatar or Oman, will be expected to rely on Iran and Turkey for protection. But if the Arab-Israeli alliance gives Iran and Turkey a reason to join forces, then Turkey’s aggressive stance in the Caucasus and Iraq could become a problem for Iran. Turkish military support for Azerbaijan now coincides with Israeli support for Baku, and Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have reached an agreement, worried about the consequences of Turkey’s successful maneuver in the conflict.
As these overlapping rivalries spread across the region, confrontations are likely to become unpredictable, as are potential tactical alliances. This, in turn, could cause the intervention of Russia, which has already demonstrated that it knows how to use divisions in the region to its own interests. China can follow suit; His talks about a strategic partnership with Iran and the nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia may be just a preliminary act, because the Middle East is located on China’s western borders, which means that it is in its interests.
Here is the link for more of Rami Dabbas
Rami Dabbas is a rare, outspoken Arab advocate for Israel, fighting against terrorism. Rami is a former Muslim who became a pro-Israel Christian. Based in Jordan, he joined anti-Islam activities at university after leaving Islam in 2012. Rami studied civil engineering and is now a human rights activist fighting against Sharia Law, radical Islamic terrorism & Arab nationalism.
Rami is a political writer involved in Christian advocacy and pro-Israel advocacy. He is affiliated with groups like Pegida Canada and Jihad Watch – part of the LA-based think tank ”David Horowitz Freedom Center.” He also serves as a peace campaigner promoting normalization between Israel and Arab nations. In addition to the Voice of Europe & JihadWatch.org Rami also writes for the NY-based journal and news-site the Algemeiner and the Times of Israel.
His passion is to promote peace between Arabs and Israel following in the footsteps of the late Jordanian King Hussein who made peace with the Jewish State in 1994.
As a pro-Israel advocate, Rami connects in his home country Jordan with many NGOs and think-tanks that promote peace with Israel and work with counter-Jihad organizations.
Rami gives Israel Today readers a unique Arab Christian perspective on events in and around the Middle East.
