Jerusalem Post
Prof. Sam Lehman-Wilzig: The Opening Round of Israel’s 2026 Election Campaign
You weren’t aware that Israel’s election campaign just started, were you? But it did a few days ago when Israel’s Ministry of Strategic Affairs, Ron Dermer predicted that the Gaza War will be over in a year, with regional peace deals following thereafter. To understand why (and how) this is the opening salvo of an election campaign that officially should be held only in another eighteen months, some important background information has to be put on the table first.
Israel’s parliamentary system enables elections to be called earlier than the full four-year term. In fact, they usually have been – either because the socio-economic situation is getting worse; or the opposite: because things are getting better, the prime minister thinks that an earlier election date is an auspicious time for the ruling party; or….
With mandatory elections coming up, coalition partners need to differentiate themselves from the main party in government, so that as election day starts looming on the horizon these parties’ internal coalition demands increase – up to the point where the prime minister feels it’s better to bring the elections forward than to give in to his ostensible partners’ exorbitant demands.
In Israel, all these factors will soon arise – and PM Netanyahu is acutely aware of it. Nevertheless, in his personal case there are two counter-factors preventing an earlier election. First, his ongoing trial(s). Bibi believes (probably mistakenly) that only by remaining the prime minister will he be able to avoid a guilty verdict and jail (reminder: Israel has already sent one PM to jail – Ehud Olmert). Indeed, if he loses his job as prime minister, Bibi can’t even become a regular government minister according to Israeli law i.e., his political career is over.
Second, it is no secret that he has blocked every attempt to set up an official Commission of Inquiry to investigate everything leading up to the Oct. 7 debacle. The reason is clear: several years ago he gave the orders enabling Hamas to receive vast sums of money – in Bibi’s mistaken belief that this would “pacify” Hamas into a more “moderate” stance vis-à-vis Israel and/or as a counterweight to the Palestinian Administration in the West Bank. Thus, pushing off the dread day of such a Commission’s final report is critical to his continued governance, and certainly for any chance of an election victory.
The prime minister’s quandary, though, is acute for two reasons. First, as 2026 rolls around the haredim will certainly increase their political pressure to pass a draft exemption law – and at that point, with only several months left to elections, they might well leave the coalition as a signal to their supporters about finally being serious regarding the issue. Of course, Bibi can hardly force the passage of such a law without angering even more Likud supporters – ergo, new elections are called in Spring 2026 with the coalition’s collapse.
Second, over the past several months, the polls have consistently shown that in the forthcoming elections the coalition has no chance at all to emerge victorious. Now let’s imagine that the war is still going on in Fall 2026 – Bibi’s electoral disaster would be even greater, given last year’s announcement that “we are a hair’s breadth from total victory.” A war-weary – actually, completely exhausted, Israeli public would deal him a defeat of historic proportions if the war was still taking place. To prevent such an election debacle, Netanyahu has to end the war at least several months before November 2026.
And it’s here that we return to Ron Dermer’s “prediction”: the war will end “a year from now,” around April 2026 – a convenient six to seven months before the scheduled elections. With a so-called Gaza “victory” in hand, Bibi could afford to have a Commission of Inquiry set up – its findings would take at least a year (probably more) to emerge, well after the election campaign. In his mind, without an Inquiry finding, and with all the hostages back home, and with the war receding from memory (not likely, but Bibi can always hope), his chances of reelection would be far better than they seem to be today.
What could further increase his chances of winning the election? I hesitate to put forward the following thought, but given Bibi’s war decision-making over the past year and a half based on his own political needs (extending the war despite the hostages’ dire straits; not willing to talk about Gaza’s “day after”), it is conceivable to surmise (this isn’t an accusation based on any hard evidence) that Israel will attack Iran’s nuclear program so that the prime minister can enter the election campaign with a major success – assuming that such an attack doesn’t end in disaster for IDF ground combatants fighting on Iranian soil (according to leaked reports about the strategy) and/or huge American anger if Israel goes it alone without Trump’s agreeing to that. It can hardly be coincidental that precisely at the time that Dermer offered his prediction, Defense Minister Katz has been declaring that even if President Trump signs a nuclear accord with Iran, Israel will still do “what’s in its own best interests.”
To be sure, Bibi is not the only one currently preparing for early elections next year. Former PM Naftali Bennett – who has been “under the radar” for months despite very positive polling – finally announced recently that he has established a new party. Clearly, by breaking his “silence,” Bennett also understands where Bibi’s election strategy is headed. To put it in military terms, both leading candidates as Israel’s next prime minister are “softening up the public” to get ready for elections earlier than necessary. (In Israel, elections are never held in the summer months; there are too many Israelis vacationing overseas!)
In short, in the ensuing weeks and months when you read the headlines and political statements, view them through the prism of “pre-election campaigning.” The candidates and parties are off to the races – and the public has to keep pace(s).
