Egyptian President Anwar al-Sadat and Israeli Premier Menachem Begin embrace, while US President Jimmy Carter applauds after signing the Camp David Accords in the East Room of the White House, September 18, 1978, in Washington, DC [David Hume Kennerly/Getty Images]
Prof. Sam Lehman-Wilzig: Israel’s (Post-)War Surprises: Peace Signings
Given the Hamas atrocities on Oct. 7 and after, any talk of a peace treaty with the Palestinians, especially one including a Palestinian State, seems to most Israelis to be an illusion if not complete hallucinatory. But they could be wrong about that – and the country’s own past is proof of that possibility.
I well remember my own reaction (while still living in the U.S. in 1973) when I heard of Egypt’s surprise attack on Yom Kippur that year. Under my breath I swore at Anwar Sadat with the traditional Jewish curse: “yemakh shmo” (may his name be erased) – and I’m sure that most Israelis back then were using even “juicier” language. A sneak attack was bad enough – but on Yom Kippur??? That was as low as an enemy could go.
The result of that very bloody battleground was the highest number of fatalities in any other Israeli war (still today). Four years later, that “yemakh shmo” showed up in Jerusalem and relatively soon thereafter Israel and Egypt signed a peace treaty, one lasting to this very day. The unthinkable had occurred.
Then in the late 1980s the Palestinian intifada broke out, causing great damage to life and limb in Israeli society over a few year period. Once again, Israel faced an enemy (the Palestinians, led by their evil nemesis Yasser Arafat) who stooped to suicide bombings and other travesties. Here too Israel eventually prevailed despite huge anger at the Palestinian foe. The result? Within a few years the Oslo Accords were signed with the same Arafat, ostensibly to kickstart a full peace process. And if that weren’t enough, after another couple of years Israel signed a full peace treaty with the Kingdom of Jordan – a country it had been at war with since 1948.
Jump ahead thirty years to 2023-24: Israel is still fighting, this time a brutal terrorist organization (Hamas) that managed to outdo previous Israeli enemies in its barbarism. Could once again peace emerge from such a vengeful and violent state of affairs? Israel’s history suggests that the answer might be (not necessarily: “will be”): yes!
There is no need here to repeat all the details of the comprehensive peace plan that the Biden Administration is putting forth along with the Saudis and other peace-with-Israel wannabees. It’s enough to say that the plan is not “pie-in-the-sky” but rather based on the dawning reality on the part of many Arab countries (and parts of Israeli society) that the present impasse cannot continue. On the Arab world’s side, their economic modernization plans will be hard to put into full practice as long as the Palestinian issue remains a thorn in the side of their citizenry, not to mention the unwillingness of international investors to go “all in” when political instability is but another “explosion” away. As for Israel, where would the country be without the full military and diplomatic support of America and several major European countries? Israeli intransigence on the peace process could be disastrous for the country if such backing is lost (and with quixotic Trump as possibly the next president, no American support is guaranteed as recently became clear in his comments regarding NATO going it alone).
Historically, the “stars” occasionally align for the better (the opposite is also true). Or as the Hebrew expression puts it: may’az yo’tzei matok (“sweet can emerge from the bitter”). The Gaza war is one of those watersheds in human history (at least for the Middle East) where the stars are aligning. Of course, things could also go from bad to worse; there certainly is no inevitability about the eventual outcome of the post-war process – positive or negative. There are obviously too many intangibles to make any prediction.
To mention just a few: Will this Israeli government collapse and a more centrist (open-to-a-peace process government) take its place? Will the Palestinian Authority be willing to really undergo significant reform, not only regarding its Israel/Jew-bashing but reshaping its internal conduct: financial transparency, regular elections, etc? What sort of real, blanket security guarantees can the moderate Arab world and the U.S. offer Israel in return for agreeing to a Palestinian State? What will be done about Iran and its other proxies? What parts of Judea and Samaria (aka the administered territories) will Israel be able to keep and which to give up – and how would the Israeli government deal with violent pushback by extremist settlers?
In the end, actual and final peace with the Palestinians might not be attained. However, given Israel’s past historical experience, some sort of realistic start to the end-game process is not at all inconceivable. As the saying goes: history doesn’t repeat itself, but it sure often rhymes…
