Prof. Sam Lehman-Wilzig: Israel’s Enemies Are Also Learning that Less is More
“Less is More”: the secret of Israel’s success since its founding. Despite a much smaller population compared to its not-so-friendly neighbors, in addition to a lack of natural resources that some of her enemies were blessed with (e.g., oil and gas in abundance), “tiny” Israel has leveraged its few advantages (e.g., brainpower) into national lifesaving strengths. However, that era is gradually ending – for Israel and all the other world’s “Great Powers.”
The latest example: the ongoing war against Iran. Despite an overwhelming advantage in military firepower, the U.S. and Israel have not been able to completely defeat Iran that’s using missiles and drones to hit back at their opponents’ underbelly: closing the Straits of Hormuz against the U.S. as well as sporadic missile attacks against Israel’s civilians. Similarly, Israel has virtually taken over all of southern Lebanon, but Hezbollah’s short(ish)-range missile and drone attacks continue apace.
Of course, this isn’t the first time we are witness to such a phenomenon. Smaller Ukraine has led the way in its war with much bigger (and wealthier) Russia. When the war started in 2022 most analysts thought it would end within a few weeks; instead, it continues for over four years with no end in sight, notwithstanding Russia’s huge demographic and economic advantage. Why?
Because the Ukrainian army has taken on the “Less is More” mantra with a vengeance by developing small drone technology that basically neutralizes Russia’s military manpower lead. By first purchasing, and now building, their own “off-the-shelf” drones – not only operating singly but using advanced tech (AI, etc.) to enable them to attack in swarms – the Ukraine army has rendered suicidal any Russian, mass human attack. Moreover, such small-size munitions enable the Ukrainians to assault Russian installations hundreds and even thousands of kilometers over the border, without a single Ukrainian soldier leaving their own country.
One can see similar elements in other areas of political – and potential military – conflict. With 1.3 billion people, why doesn’t China invade Taiwan that has a mere 23 million, when it considers that island to be an integral part of the mainland? Because Taiwan’s “Porcupine Strategy” involves a lethal, asymmetric weapons strategy that emphasizes small, portable, accurate, cost-effective weapons e.g., anti-ship missiles, drones, mines et al, instead of trying to match China with its high-tech but conventional weaponry. China is rightly afraid of losing its amphibious landing ships before they even reach the shore, mowed down by the far smaller but much more numerous weapons at Taiwan’s disposal. And don’t forget: Taiwan is by far the world’s largest manufacturer of the most advanced microchips. Putting those tiny chips inside projectiles, drones, mini-missiles and the like – that’s a particularly deadly force that is well nigh invisible!
Indeed, this is all part of a far broader, world technology trend evolving over the past 80 years. In a word: computers. Whereas in the past, technologies were almost always thought of as “Bigger is Better,” the computer revolution has turned this on its head: the smaller it becomes, the faster and more efficient it gets. The original ENIAC took up a large room. Compare that to the handheld cellphone in your pocket. Here’s a stunning fact: today’s cellphone has more computing power than all the computers (in a large hall) used by NASA for the first moon landing!
The next stage in this army downsizing revolution is probably a mere decade or so away: robot soldiers. With advanced AI built-in, robots today have come a long way from when they were large, clunky, and distinctly “non-human” in appearance and capabilities. Robots today can dance, do sports, somersault etc. In another few years they should be able to do almost anything a human soldier can do – without any fear of death. Expensive? Yes, but only at the start; like everything else in the AI/computer chip world, prices tend to come down quickly. Imagine low population countries investing in a (midget-sized) robot army – at first managed by humans behind the scenes, but ultimately fully autonomous.
On top of all this is CYBER-warfare — a subject worthy of an entire blog essay itself. For now, needless to point out that this is by far the “cheapest” form of military weaponry, demanding knowhow on the part of a relatively small number of high-level experts in any size country: large, small or tiny. Indeed, there’s not even a need of a state apparatus: terrorist organizations can just as easily join and excel at this.
What does all this mean for Israel moving forward? The good news is that the country is among the leaders in AI and military technology (cyber-warfare too), so that it has been, an will continue to be, one of the first to implement such “weaponry.” Among other things, that would resolve today’s problem of its hugely overworked, reserve duty soldiers. The bad news is that such weaponry ultimately becomes easily purchased “off-the-shelf.” Israel’s technologically backwards enemies are licking their chops in anticipation.
None of this is to say that Israel is “doomed”; it is to say that the time has come for its leadership to start thinking strategically about the mid-term future of warfare and what that means for the country militarily and politically-diplomatically as well. The Middle East is presently on the cusp of two alternative possibilities: “all hell breaking loose” or “peace in our time.” Given the technological-military trends discussed here, the latter looks like a far better choice for the country’s future direction. You don’t have to be artificially intelligent to understand that.
