Prof. Sam Lehman-Wilzig: Israel – Too Much “Now” Thinking Part 1
Here are three things with a common denominator: 1- PM Netanyahu has never tried resolving Israel’s haredi, the education system’s refusal to include secular subjects that clearly will lead to an economic time bomb down the road. 2- Social Security systems around the world (including those of Israel and the U.S.) have been approaching bankruptcy for quite a while. 3- It has taken decades for the world to start doing something serious about global warming.
One of the biggest problems standing in the way of rational decision-making – whether personal or political-national – is a phenomenon that we don’t think much about: “nowism”. Haven’t heard of this term? Keep on reading here.
By our very nature as human beings, we live in the here and now, even if we’re capable (most animals aren’t) of thinking about the future. But we mostly don’t. Why not? Three basic reasons. 1) We can see and feel the here and now; that’s not true of the unknown “future.” 2) Human nature has evolved over many millennia when survival was an immediate concern. As a result, we’ve been imprinted for short-term thinking; to think “out of the (here and now) box” demands mental and emotional effort. 3) With so many choices at our disposal regarding the future, it is mentally taxing to start going through all the possible decisions to be taken; as a default, therefore, we let “life” lead us blindly into the future without much conscious direction.
That’s the micro-level picture. When we turn to the macro-political sphere of life, one additional factor kicks in, especially in a democracy: the relatively short-term tenure of elected leadership. The problem involves two sides of the same coin: the public thinks short-term (see above) and even if an elected leader wants to think long-term, any results will not much affect the next election campaign. Indeed, many long-term solutions include short-term pain e.g., taxing heavy carbon users; raising the Social Security eligibility age; and legislation mandating the teaching of core subjects for everyone.
Here one can differentiate a politician from a states(wo)man. Almost everyone agrees – even his fiercest opponents – that Netanyahu is a master politician. After all, how else could he have been elected six times to the premiership, ultimately becoming Israel’s longest-serving prime minister? However, as a statesman – a leader willing to go against the grain to make important albeit unpopular decisions – he fails on almost all accounts (other than his brave budget-cutting when serving as Finance Minister back in the early 2000s during the Second Intifada). The Oct. 7 fiasco is but the latest example.
Instead of taking the bull by the horns after his famous Bar-Ilan speech a decade and a half ago and seriously attempting to find a path to peace, his policy since then has been to kick the can down the road. In order not to be forced into seriously negotiating with the Palestinian Administration (PLA) in the West Bank/Judea & Samaria, Netanyahu weakened the PLA by strengthening its internal mortal enemy: Hamas in Gaza. We now know how that turned out. Moreover, to stay in power he let the ultra-Orthodox continue with their non-education, promising the Supreme Court again and again to find a solution (seven years!), until recently the Court finally said “Enough is enough” – there’s a limit to procrastination.
Is there anything to be done about political “nowism”? Yes. First and perhaps foremost, legislate a two-term, lifetime limit for the prime minister – exactly what the U.S. did in the 25th Amendment to the Constitution. This ensures that at least in the second term of office, PMs will think more about their “place in history” – largely dependent on the long-term effects of their policies. Second, within the educational system installs serious lessons in rational cogitation, especially what Noble Laureate Kahneman called “slow” thinking that attempts to overcome fast, emotional “gut reactions.” Indeed, there can be no “subject area” more important than teaching the next generation how to think analytically, critically, and creatively. A lot of that involves the reduced benefit of short-term as opposed to long-term thinking.
None of this, of course, will turn us into completely rational beings. Indeed, in a fast-changing world that is difficult to predict many years out, there’s even some rationality in some short-term planning – leaving some decisions for later when absolutely necessary (and the picture clears up). Nevertheless, when the longer-term trends are well-defined e.g., the haredi demographic bulge, increasing lifespan and decreasing Social Security funds, etc., then it is incumbent for any society and individual to overcome our more primitive proclivity “what should I do now for today,” and replace it with “what needs to be done for a healthier tomorrow.”
As Benjamin Franklin – an American statesman (never a mere politician) – noted pithily: “By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail.”
[Next week I’ll analyze the reverse “nowism” problem, regarding our past.]
