By Yoram Getzler. It seem very important at this moment in the history of the planet and this neighborhood to make every attempt to understand the realities and challengers the various local nations and peoples are living within. If for no other reason than that the Iranian nuclear umbrella in fact spreads over all of us, all of us are also influenced and distracted by it.
It would appear that the “democratic revolution” in Egypt Libya and Tunisia is over and there’s only the finishing elements that are not totally known or complete.
What we do know: The Islamist sentiments of the Egyptian people have been expressed democratically and they have elected two legislative house with significant Islamist majorities. In the last election for the upper house the Islamist received 80% of the vote.
OK, now its the Islamist, the Muslim Brotherhood and the smaller more radical parties that have “won”. It is they who have achieved the unenviable responsibility of stabilizing and improving a profoundly broken deteriorating social, economic and cultural polity.
The first and primary area of concern are of course the people. The fact that there are more and more of them living on and dependent on the same limited area of land. On the question of the overall population of Egypt there is general agreement. Eighty million (80,000,000) and growing. (The population had doubled from forty million since 1981 when President Mubarak took power and continues to grow).
This expanding population inhabit the same 387,048 sqmi as had the inhabitants five years after independence (19220. In the 1927 census there were just 14,178,000 people). While the area of Egypt has remained large, over three hundred thousand sq/mi the vast majority of the population then, now and probably in the future concentrate in the same few miles on either side of the Nile river, with a population bulge in the area of the Nile delta.
This and sever other critical challenges immediately confront any government taking power in modern Egypt. Winning the elections may really be the booby prize for the Muslim Brotherhood.
For its entire history Egypt has effectively had full use of the Nile river catchment basin. Essentially all its water, drawn from deep in Africa, Ethiopia, Tanzanian, Burundi, Rwanda Uganda and South Sudan, and running through Sudan ended up far in the north, in the Mediterranean Sea. The Egyptians were free to use all the water, all the time. With the building of the Aswan Dam and the filling of Lake Nasser that natural water flow cycle changed and caused unanticipated problems.
NOW the Egyptians face a new problem…the nations in the headwaters area of the Nile are beginning to assert their rights and abilities to take water before it reaches Egypt. So for the first time in recorded history the Egyptians will have a limited water supply with which to feed its ever expanding population.
It is nearly impossible to separate the coming population/food/water problem from the fundamental economic challenges on the agenda of any Egyptian government. In Egypt three children are born every minute. In addition producing children is a proud affirmation of their religious beliefs.
One of the main economic engines of Egypt, is tourism. This has been a phenomena for hundreds if not thousands of years. The other generator has been the bounty of the Nile; food, particularly wheat. The Egyptians discovered/invented/created beer and bread. The yearly rising and lowering of the river transported and provided tons of free fertilizer from the southern African interior, to the food producing fields on either side of the river. The effects of Aswan High Dam began to change that cycle of fertilization and growth…and now a major change as the overall water volume drops.
Anyone who has been at the Pyramids in the past has seen the hundreds of people clutching at the tourist. Selling water or coca cola, renting a horse or camel for a walk around one of the oldest tourist traps on the planet. Taxi drivers to being you there and return you to one of the hundreds of hotels. The “guides” in front of the National Museum, the air-port personnel and the taxi drivers who take you into the city. The list of tourist employed Egyptians is huge. In Cairo and Alexandria and around the tourist sites of Luxor and Aswan and further south to Abu Simbel and the cataracts of the Nile.
In short a large economy deeply addicted to the tourist dollar; at a time of revolution and its accompanying violence and uncertainly is a depleted economy indeed.
Egypt also faces future climate driven challenges along her northern Mediterranean coast. In the delta where the Nile meets the sea. A delicate ancient ecological balance between fresh and salty water, is in the process of change. The local manifestation of climate change will be the sea rising, and the river receding. Millions of human beings will be forced to cope with unprecedented and complex changing physical phenomena on the very land they have relied on for generations.
All the “revolutions” of the Arab Spring have had as a basis the growing cadre of young educated citizens with bleak employment possibilities. What is true for Egypt and Tunisia is equally true for Yemen, Syria Iraq, Lebanon and Iran. The only real difference is the variety in the percentage of the population this group represents. Egypt is experiencing a tragedy of unmarried women in their 20’s and 30’s as the young men have no money for the bride price these woman, many educated, are falurs forced to remain at home with their fathers and brothers
The concentration of the last sixty years on Israel and its conflict with the Palestinians has not contributed anything to the comprehension of the true and deep problems facing these societies. The emphasis on military spending as a consequence of this conflict has contributed nothing to the well being of the Arab and Muslim peoples.
All these are a small selection of the challenges facing any new Egyptian government. Democratic or Islamic.
All this leads me to a concern that when it becomes obvious that the Islamist government even with the help of Allah can not perform the required miracles to rescue the Egyptian people from their cruel self- imposed fate the traditional and accessible responsible party will be found conveniently right across the border. And guess what? It will be the same people who for centuries have been at fault of the nations problems. It will be a true accomplishment if whatever the political community in power does not fall for the easy out of blaming the American, Israel and the Jews for their countries problems.
What can one say other than “good luck”?! Of course it will take a lot more than luck.
NEXT: our northern neighbor.
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