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Jack Cohen – Perceived Wisdom – Advantages of IS and Israeli Mistakes

Perceived Wisdom

Many people, particularly those on the left, have a tendency to believe certain unsubstantiated views and state them with conviction, such as:

1. “A two-state solution will solve the Middle East conflict.”  This is a common reflex of those who indulge in wishful thinking, such as US Secty. of State John Kerry, who recently stated that “this (the current violent situation in Jerusalem) is what it will look like if there is not a two-state solution.”  How does he know that, can he predict the future.  It is purely a guess on his part, but for us it could be life or death.  On the contrary, I predict that if there is a two-state solution there will not be peace, but things will get much worse.  The putative Palestinian State will become another failed Arab State (like Syria, Libya, Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon) which will invite more terrorists in, including IS that is not far away, and the situation will be like we now have with Gaza.  Another failed terrorist mini-state on our border.  But, then we would have them on both sides.  No, to avoid this situation, there needs not only to be a cessation of incitement by the Palestinian leadership, but also a recognition by them of Israel’s existence as the Jewish State.  Without that a two-state solution is an illusion of foreign diplomats and well-meaning dupes.
2. “There is no military solution to the problem.”  How do people know this, are they all military experts?  I would ask the Chief of Staff of the IDF for his opinion before I would state such a simplistic meme.  It is repeated ad nauseam in the nature of an established truth, the perceived wisdom of the unthinking lumpen liberal masses.  Many people said in 1939 that there was no military solution to the German take-over of Poland, but they were wrong.  Likewise, there are several military solutions to the Palestinian problem, not necessarily palatable ones, but military solutions nonetheless.  One such military solution might be an Israeli attack on Gaza similar to those being conducted by the air forces of the civilized western countries, the US, UK, France and Russia, in Syria today.
3. “The settlements are illegal and an impediment to peace.” This is the perceived wisdom throughout most of the world.  But, this is based on two false premises: a. That Israel has no legal claim to the territory of the West Bank, which is false.  One would expect that fair-minded people would at least accept that Israel does have a legal claim, even though they may not think it is a strong or valid claim because of other considerations, such as that they support the establishment of a Palestinian State.  Because they prefer that the Palestinians get the West Bank that does not ipso facto mean that Israel’s claim is “illegal.”  b. The settlements are not an impediment to peace as can be readily seen by the fact that Palestinian leaders Yasir Arafat and Mahmud Abbas have negotiated peace with Israeli leaders during the building and expansion of the Israeli settlements.  Indeed the settlements are an issue to be negotiated in any peace deal.  It would be equivalent to saying that the presence of Palestinians on the West Bank is an impediment to peace, but that doesn’t mean that negotiations can’t go ahead.  Anyway, the Israel Government has said many times that they are prepared to negotiate over the presence of the settlements and that some will be integrated into Israel, but that some can be dismantled, i.e. they are not an impediment.

In this context it is relevant that New Zealand, an important international power that is currently on the UN Security Council, has issued a draft resolution that calls for Israel to stop all settlement construction in exchange for the Palestinians to stop unilateral actions at the UN.  But, these two things are not equivalent, and this is a constant mistake that all western countries make.  In other words, what they are saying to the Palestinians is, if you stop trying to delegitimize Israel, Israel will give up a tangible negotiating asset.  Are both sides in every conflict equivalent, is the IS equivalent to the US, were the Allies equivalent to the Nazis? Anyway, who is New Zealand to interfere in our affairs?   They should stick to something they are good at – rugby.  I suggest that Israel introduce a resolution at the UN proposing that New Zealand accept a two-state solution in which the South Island is given back to the Maoris.  This is at least as sensible as their proposal.

 

The advantages of IS

There is a common proverb, that every problem has within it an opportunity.  Some people are very scared that the Islamic State (IS, ISIS or ISIL) represents a distinct imminent threat to Israel.  But here are some reasons why IS actually is a good thing for Israel:

1. All the major powers are fighting IS, incredibly both Russia and the US and all its allies are all attacking IS at the same time.  Even the US (under Obama) sat down and talked about the future of Syria with Iran.  Whatever they agree you can be sure they will both be against IS.  So although up to now IS has been on a  winning streak, and although the air campaign of the Russians and the US and its allies cannot alone destroy IS, they can keep it under control for a while and with increasingly effective ground support, including the Kurds, they are likely to gradually crush IS.
2. In every country there are Islamic extremists who want to carry out terrorist acts and destroy western civilization.  How much more convenient is it to destroy them if they decide in fact to go to Syria to fight for IS.  They are concentrating in Syria, over 1,200 French extremist Muslims, 600 from the UK and so on from around Europe.  How much easier to destroy them all together in the fighting and air attacks than if they were spread around the world.
3. Israel has not until now been engaged in direct contact with the IS, but Israel sees the Iranians as a much greater immediate threat.  But, IS is keeping the Iranians busy, including their proxy Hizbollah from Lebanon.  There are reports that Hizbollah have lost 4,000 fighters in combat in Syria.  If so that is a major loss and certainly reduces their capability to attack Israel.   So the IS is drawing Israel’s enemies away from potential conflict with Israel.
4. None of the combatants in Syria or elsewhere in the Arab world, that includes the fundamental Sunni-Shia clash, have much time for the Palestinians.  In fact because the Israel-Palestine conflict it is essentially insoluble and because Israel is too strong for them to attack, they are basically leaving the Palestinians to themselves.  But, all the Palestinians in the West Bank can do is attack civilians with knives and a few guns.  And Hamas is quiet now, not wanting to risk another attack like they suffered from the IDF last time in Operation Defensive Edge.  Even the Americans are getting tired of the Palestinians resort to violence and no other strategy and they have reduced their aid to the PA by m$80.

So basically all Israel has to do is sit here, continue to be strong and prosperous, kill as many Palestinian terrorists as possible, and eventually the attacks will peter out, and meanwhile Israel’s enemies will be killing each other.  How convenient.

 

Israeli mistakes

I often report on Israeli advances and victories that have brought us to the current situation.  But, in fact Israeli leaders have made significant mistakes in dealing with our reality.  What are the greatest mistakes Israel has made:

1. The Temple Mount: One of the greatest mistakes was that made by Moshe Dayan, then Defense Minister, when after the Israeli victory of the Six-Day War of 1967, he magnanimously gave control of the Temple Mount, the holiest site in Judaism where the Temple once stood, to the Muslims.  The Waqf, the Muslim Trust that administers the Muslim Holy Sites, including the two Mosques on what they call the Haram al Sharif, the Nobel Sanctuary, was given control of the site, even though Israel retains ultimate sovereignty.  Dayan was quite an impulsive man, there are many anecdotes about him (including his stealing of ancient artifacts that belonged to the State, and several love affairs), and he was notoriously arrogant.  He believed, that because he grew up with the Arabs he knew their mentality, so he thought if he gave them control of the Temple Mount they would be forever grateful and would be cooperative with the Israeli authorities.  He could not have been more wrong.  On the contrary, at every step the Muslim authorities have acted to oppose Israel and Jewish presence on the Mount.  He also gave control of the Mount to the Jordanian King, which in itself was a mistake, because it confuses the question of sovereignty.  But, this is the so-called status quo, that everybody, including Israeli PM Netanyahu, assures the Muslims that he will uphold.  But, the Waqf has excavated a huge area under the Mount and has destroyed unbelievable archeological treasures without Israeli interference, and has allowed Palestinian youths to store explosives in the Mosques and then to mount attacks from the Mosques on Jewish worshipers at the Western Wall below.  If only Dayan had put Jewish interests first before those of the Muslims, we would not be in the situation we are in now.
2. The Yom Kippur War: The intelligence failure of the Israeli authorities in 1973, to not see the blatant signs of an impending attack by Pres. Anwar Sadat of Egypt and Pres. Hafez Assad of Syria is perhaps the greatest failure of Israel’s existence.   The major culprit was Gen. Eli Zeira who was in Head of Military Intelligence and who reported to PM Golda Meir.  He was so arrogant that despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, he refused to believe that the Egyptians had any military capability and that they could not coordinate an attack with the Syrians.  He was totally wrong.  He rejected the warnings of King Hussein himself to Golda Meir and the best secret agent Israel ever had, Ashraf Marwan, who was the son-in-law of Sadat, that an attack was coming, even with the approximate date.  When the Egyptian armies massed in Sinai, Zeira bought the excuse that they were there for routine exercises.  Even the day before the attack he still maintained that there was no need for the IDF to go on alert.  What a terrible mistake, that caused at least 3,000 Israeli casualties.  And who saved us all from disaster, it was Gen. Ariel Sharon, who was a brilliant general if not as good a politician.
3. The return of Arafat:  Yasir Arafat and the PLO were a dying, if not a dead, cause, when PM Yitzhak Rabin, in a calculated move, rescued him from obscurity and brought him back to Palestine in 1994 and put him in charge of the Palestine Authority that had been established as part of the Oslo Accords of 1993.  After all it made sense, Arafat was finished, he had been exiled in Tunis in 1982 when his forces were defeated by the IDF in the First Lebanon War.  But, he had been rescued then by the intervention of the Americans, who saw to it that the PLO would live to fight another day.   However, no Arab country would take him, except finally Tunisia.  But after some years even they were growing hostile to his presence, and an Israeli raid on Tunis in 1988 destroyed much of Arafat’s credibility.    If Rabin had not rescued him from exile and brought him back he would have died in obscurity there.  Even the local Palestinian organizers of the First Intifada (uprising) against Israel did not want him here.  But, Rabin thought Arafat would be grateful to Israel for saving him and he would be a “partner for peace.”  On the contrary, instead of seeking peace he organized terrorism. Instead of fighting Hamas as Rabin had hoped, he cooperated with them.  So we had the Second Intifada that caused ca. 1,000 Israeli deaths.  Why was not Rabin smart enough to see that he could not trust Arafat and that he should have let him die in obscurity in Tunis?

What are the lessons of these mistakes:  1. Never trust the Arabs; 2. Never trust your own judgement, it can be influenced by your own irrational beliefs and arrogance; 3. Despite everything Israel is here to stay.  If we could survive those massive mistakes we can survive anything.

 

Born in London, UK, lived in suburban Washington DC area for 30 years, moved to Israel in 1996. He has a web site: Jack’s Blog

Jack Cohen – Perceived Wisdom – Advantages of IS and Israeli Mistakes