Jack Cohen – Destroy Syria and a Syrian Ceasefire?
Destroy Syria
The Israeli Army Chief of Staff Benny Gantz to the Prime Minister: Bibi you are asking us to wipe out the Syrian enemy, but we can’t do it. The whole world would be against us, can you imagine? If we bombed Aleppo, a city of over 2 million people, and reduced it to rubble, there would be hundreds of thousands of refugees. It would unite the whole world against us, the Arabs, the Americans, the Russians, the Chinese, the Iranians, the Turks, the neutrals, everyone.
Bibi: But, Benny, Syria is the last remaining enemy of the Arab States that surround us that refuses to deal with us at all. The Assads are continually fomenting violence against us through Lebanon, using Hizbollah as a surrogate, and there have been numerous wars and clashes, while Assad continually builds up his forces. How long are we supposed to accept this situation. Also, the Syrian people have been indoctrinated to believe that it is their right and duty to kill all Israelis and Jews. Syria leads the rejectionist front. This is intolerable.
Benny: I caution patience. The Syrians are proxies of Iran, and even if we wiped out Aleppo as an example of our strength, as the Allies did to Dresden in 1944, it would only cause Iran to resupply the Assads and Hizbollah with even greater military weapons. If we wait long enough the internal stability of all these Arab States that have been controlled by military dictatorships for generations will eventually break down. Their people are getting poorer as they pour all their wealth into arms in order to fight a convenient enemy.
Bibi: Yes, but that convenient enemy is us! Ok, we’ll wait and see what happens.
So they waited and sure enough who destroyed Aleppo, the Syrian Air Force, dropping barrel bombs filled with high explosives on their own civilians, supported by the Russian Air Force and the Syrian Army on the ground. And elsewhere in Syria, the Islamic State took over ca. 40% of the country and murdered hundreds of thousands of Syrians, because they didn’t like them. And the Kurds began to flex their muscles and took over several regions in the north. As well as the insurrectionist opposition that started the whole thing by opposing Assad, in the streets and then in battle. So Syria is divided into four sections, each fighting each other, the Assad regime (supported by the Russians and the Iranians), the Opposition (Free Syrian Army), the IS and the Kurds. After 5 years of war, Syria is essentially a destroyed country, with 6.4 million refugees distributed in Turkey (2 million), Jordan (1.2 million), Lebanon (1 million), Iraq (1 million) and Germany and Scandinavia (1.2 million), as well as several million internally displaced people and ca. 400,000 dead.
The current situation is that the Assad regime supported by the Russian air force is gaining ground around Aleppo and the remaining ca. 350,000 people there are fleeing, mostly to the Turkish border, where several hundred thousand are gathering, but are not being allowed to enter Turkey, which claims it is already full of refugees. I suppose I should feel sorry for the suffering of the Syrian people, but we had nothing to do with it. Complain to Assad, to Putin and to Ayatollah Khamanei of Iran, they are the architects of Syria’s downfall and suffering. Meanwhile the Arab countries are saying (again) that they will send supplies to the Syrian Opposition, and the Americans are too busy with their election campaign to take notice. At least Syria is no longer a threat to Israel. Sometimes doing nothing and waiting is the best policy.
Syrian Ceasefire
The talks on the Syrian conflict at the International Security Conference in Munich were just getting underway, when they were suspended. The reason was that the advance of the Syrian Army under the cover of the Russian Air force was defeating the anti-Assad forces in the city of Aleppo and causing a huge wave of migrants to build up at the Turkish border, precipitating a humanitarian crisis. What is the point of talking ceasefire when the fighting is in full swing and one side is about to be defeated and removed from the scene.
But, behind the scenes talks continued, especially between the Americans led by US Secty. of State John Kerry and the Russians led by FM Segei Lavrov. They came to an agreement that they were able to sell to the other combatants, namely that there will be a general cessation of hostilities and delivery of humanitarian supplies across Syria that will begin in a week’s time, but excluding the Islamic State and Al Qaeda affiliates. By delaying the ceasefire this gave the Russians and their allies, Pres. Assad of Syria and the Iranians, time to complete their offensive around Aleppo and yet give a date when the anti-Assad forces will be able to have some relief from the constant pressure against them.
But, will this agreement achieve anything dramatic and lasting in Syria? The answer is most likely not. There are too many actors and too many local conflicts. For example, apart from the Russians and the Syrian regime and their Iranian supporters, there are the anti-regime forces with their American, Saudi and Turkish supporters, as well as the Kurds and the Islamists, both the Al Qaeda affiliate, the Al-Nusrah Front, and the Islamic State, that are not included in the agreement, as well as dozens of local anti-regime and Islamist groups. It is an impossible task, Syria has become a quagmire of conflicting and violent groups that are impossible to pacify.
Over the past five years of war, almost 10% of the population have been killed and ca. 30% have become refugees, either externally or internally displaced. Syria no longer exists as a coherent sovereign country and only the Russians seem determined to protect their interests by propping us Assad. How long they can continue to do this remains to be seen. Even though the allied air campaign supporting the anti-Assad forces and against the IS remains active, its results are apparently inconclusive. But, putting US “boot on the ground” into such a mess is not a viable option either.
Meanwhile the parties have established a Task Force under the aegis of the International Syria Support Group (ISSG) that will coordinate the supply of humanitarian goods with the UN agencies. Trucks full of supplies are now waiting for the go-ahead. Whether this will really happen remains to be seen. At least Secty. of State Kerry is working hard to try to bring this about.
Jack Cohen
Born in London, UK, lived in suburban Washington DC area for 30 years, moved to Israel in 1996. He has a web site: Jack’s Blog
