By Yoram Getzler. To be completely accurate; in reality the full story of the Israel / Egypt peace treaty is still in process.
Yet there are some unmistakable signs already that demand concern, consideration and thought. Even after many years of an official peace treaty between Israel and Egypt the hostility of Egyptians towards Israel is at a fever pitch. In no small part this is due to the continued anti-Israel, along with a strong anti-Jewish educational policy by all the elements of the Egyptian society and government over these past decades of “peace”.
Although the treaty managed to survive several difficult violent confrontations and emotional challenges; like the IDF assaults on Gaza and the earlier attack into the West Bank with all the accompanying horror stories.
Now, after years of quiet the true sentiments of the Egyptian people, educated in hatred towards Israel are being displayed in public and threatens to become an integral part of the Egyptian Arab Spring, and has become a prime issue in the democratic election process. Which is featured as a first time expression of that highest of goals, true democracy. The danger is multidimensional.
First; to the degree that the people of Egypt are successfully distracted by the Jewish, Israeli Bogy Man conspiracy theories, there will be a repeat of the previous “revolution” in 1952 that ousted King Farouk. That revolution also promised positive change, but turned into a military dictatorship by Gamal Nassar. The challenge to the Egyptian people is Will they refuse to be deterred from their true struggle to attain a modern functional state. It is they who will suffer the continued consequences of corruption, mismanagement, dire hunger and great personal poverty, along with a continuing deferment of the benefits of modernity.
Second; the continued loss of national and personal income as tourists continue to stay away in droves out of fear generated by the on-going social instability. Additional losses: the general slow-down in commercial shipping activity world wide will leave Egypt even more dependent on foreign aid, either from the wealthy oil states, Saudi Arabia, Iraq etc or from the West.
Third; the high cost of a war with Israel which the Islamist parties may well be compelled by their rhetoric to engage in themselves.
Fourth; the use of democracy in the form of a national referendum in which the majority of the Egyptian people vote in favor of abrogating the Peace Treaty with Israel with all the dangerous consequences that would mean for the region. This at a time of great ecological changes and their effect on the ability of individual national communities to successfully provide their people with adequate nourishment… and most critical for us.
Fifth; what is the lesson for Israel that this advanced post-graduate seminar in Middle-East diplomacy, trust, and peace making offers? Can this internal Egyptian process and the unsurprising moderated response of the international community; the UN, the US and Europe, possibly encourage Israel to take the necessary chances “for peace” by compromising its current territorial situation, vastly improved from 1967? Will the political, social process in Egypt be perceived by anyone as confidence building measures for Israel? We can expect these internal conflicts to gain in importance following what seems at this point to be a powerful consensus to renege on the Israel / Egyptian Peace Treaty stimulated by the sentiments of hatred of Israel carefully taught, embellished and encouraged during the past decades.
We must be aware that this process also holds tremendous potential danger for Israel. It is likely that the developing Islamist government will choose to engage in a process of escalating on-going small scale violation of the treaty which will goad Israel into the need for its own escalating defensive activities, which in turn can easily be used to stimulate the population into unreasonable demands to “save the honor of the nation” by some glorious military venture. After all, over the course of human history that has proven to be a winning combination for a government unable to satisfy its peoples basic needs.
Unfortunately Mr. Natan Sharansky who predicted and promised that “democracy” was the antidote to the dismal record of authoritarian rule in the Arab world could be proved wrong in the coming years as the Arab Spring develops.
…and then again there is always; Syria, Iran and a renewed Iraq to add to the witches brew.
