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Howard Epstein – THE WORLD IS A SCARY PLACE AND YOU AIN’T SEEN NOTHING YET

Whilst those on the Left fret about the appointment of the once would-be beheader of recalcitrant Israeli Arabs, Avigdor Lieberman, to head up the Defence Ministry, attention is diverted from the real problems in this crazy, scary world of ours.

As Caroline M Glick expertly points out in this weekend’s Jerusalem Post, Iran has a game-plan for regional dominance and a strategy for carrying it into effect, perhaps (as she asserts) with the connivance of the Americans.

Further, David M Weinberg, in the same newspaper, alerts us to EU vilification of Israel, and material steps on the ground – actually on ground not a kilometre away from the eastern edge of Jerusalem – to our strategic detriment, which the Israeli army is  making only fainthearted efforts to resist (on orders for restraint, no doubt, from above).

Each of these warnings is vitally important and worthy of further study, so let us hope that they are getting the attention they deserve in Jerusalem and (in the Kyriah) in Tel Aviv. Let us hope, too, that they see the even wider picture that ought to bear in on us at a time of even greater uncertainty possibly than at any other juncture in recent, perhaps living, memory.

Uncertainty is a nasty state: it unsettles markets and it makes planning, strategic and military, fiendishly difficult: all sorts of scenarios have to be considered and projected. Let us look at the source of those uncertainties and, given their predilection for making our lives difficult, let us see, first, how the Europeans are leading their lives, for the outcome of their tribulations may affect our well-being, too.

France is in a state of collapse, and not just politically. As previously observed, Hollande is by far the most unpopular president in modern times; but he cannot win favor from the workers and the unions by amending, or dropping, his proposed employment law reforms, as he has already made too many concessions to maintain even the semblance of credibility, were he to do so. So the strikes, blockades, street-demonstrations and revenue depletion continue. The current watery inundation of Paris is almost emblematic of how, not only the art in the Louvre’s vaults, but also the Fifth Republic itself, are sinking. Only where Israel and the Palestinians are concerned is France resolute and deliberate. True to the ideals of the great European conspiracy with the Arabs against the Jews, so expertly and authoritatively described in her books by academic, Bat Yeor (Gisèle Littman), France continues to claim that we are the source of all the region’s difficulties – “Die Juden sind unser Unglück!” (“The Jews are our misfortune!“) as the Nazi motto went. We have heard it all before, mes frères et amis. It was a calumny then and it is now. Let the French plot and scheme. We have constructive work to do.

Italy, to all who are acquainted with the depths to which the tentacles of the mafia have reached (see Roberto Saviano’s Gommorah and Italy’s Other Mafia), and those others who understand its fiscal difficulties, is seen to be beyond redemption; but it remains important in its role of stepping stone to northern Europe for the multitudes who have, and the others who yet wish to, become beneficiaries of the pleasures of life in Germany and the UK – about 2 million over last year and this, according to most well-informed estimates. Not many a polity could survive that and perhaps European implosion is closer than they appear to realise. It was by a hairsbreadth that the Austrians (who gave us Herr (Adolf Hitler) Schiklgrüber) did not elect a far-right President last week. Other such entrants into the European mainstream threaten in the coming years.

Germany is up to its neck in those difficulties and having just now pinned the Armenian genocide on the Turks (again?) have their own battles ahead of them, with millions of Turkish gastarbeiter entrenched in Germany and its economy.

And so we come to the UK. There, a left-wing Opposition Labour Party that is profoundly anti-Semitic yet excuses itself by insisting that it is only anti-Zionist (so that’s all right, then) is weak, ineffectual and only electable in the event of an economic collapse. (Since that seems unlikely for a year or two, we can ignore them for now.) As for the ruling Conservative Party, they are tearing themselves apart over Europe, the subject that has always divided them. All Britons await, with breath duly bated, the outcome of the referendum on so-called Brexit on June 23 to discover whether there will be uncertainty on the details of the divorce of one party from the other 27 to the failed marriage, or the uncertainty that would result from the English being shown to have voted out whilst the Scots for remaining in – which would lead to further calls for Scotland to leave the once United Kingdom. Staying in would bring other problems. Colonel Richard Kemp (formerly CinC British forces in Afghanistan, and the foremost military fan of the IDF, asserting that it is the most moral army in history), claims that the most dangerous European project is the proposed European army. He, accordingly, urges an “out” vote. Several other former British Army officers have since confirmed this view. Would a European army ever be turned against Israel? The outcome could be an embarrassing disaster – but almost certainly not for Israel.)

Further afield, we have to consider the USA where, in under six months, a new president is to be elected. The choice, as every sentient being knows, will be between the possibly indictable Hillary Clinton, with a track record on corruption longer than my arm and those of all my readers combined, and the oafish, and possibly maniacal Donald Trump, a loose cannon if ever there was one.

Then again, there is the case of Russia. Without a strong and prolonged revival in the oil price, which has started its upwards march but needs to continue to save Putin long-term (most Russian leaders are done for, or done in, before they are done), Russia has a hard slog ahead of it. Putin has offered free land in the Russian far east to anyone who is so far insufficiently bored with life in the Russian west, to try to counter the slow but inexorable creep of China and its influence over the whole of the Pacific region, from the recently-concreted-over Spratley Islands to Siberia. (This ironically gives Russia and the USA some community of interest.) We seem to be on the right side of Russia, and Putin will want to fill any vacuum left by the Americans not only in Egypt, as we have already seen, but also in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, now regarded as surplus to requirements by the Obama White House.

Now we begin to see some form of common cause emerging for, finally, we come to the Saudis, the Gulf States and (as Regan once said) the plucky state of Jordan. (Actually, he toasted King Hussein and the plucky state of Israel, but we let it pass then and shall do so now). They merited no attention from Ms Glick but they are not insignificant players. America may be ready to throw Israel to the wolves, or under the bus, but they will never allow Jordan to go under without multi-nation resistance, alongside Saudi Arabia. Accordingly, much as the Iranians position themselves to sweep down to the Gulf of Aqaba, they will find that much of the West and the Gulf will form a formidable obstacle. An alliance between Israel and the Saudis? Perhaps not de jure, but de facto? It cannot be easily dismissed.

The Iranians know as they posture with their claim to be able to destroy Israel in eight minutes that they would be vaporised before the first six have passed. Thus they know they are impotent against us.

As we see collapse, and popular resentment of big government and the ruling class everywhere west of Minsk, we continue to plough our furrow, leveraging our resourcefulness for the benefit of mankind. Recently, we signed important trade deals with South Korea and Taiwan, which ought to tell us something about our relationship with Europe: We must work for the day after the Europeans will finally be shown to have overreached themselves. The world is crazy and scary and it will get worse before it gets better, but not necessarily to our detriment.

The possibility that the governments of France and Germany could fall in the next year, and either a wild-card Trump or a typically-distracted Clinton (as was her husband in the years before 9/11) beset with scandal, the mark of the Clintons, in the White House, may mean that bad as things are, they can get a lot worse.

Given the strength of the Israeli economy, and its military/technology lead, we should keep doing whatever we have been doing and let the others exhaust themselves. Of course, there are challenges coming our way but the unique Israeli technology that will this summer enable the world to see the Olympic games from Brazil in real time is a peaceful example of our clout and utility – and the reason why we shall meet the challenges as they appear. Love us or hate us (and there appears to be much of the latter), they know, au fond, that they cannot do without us. In the meantime and always Israeli policy should be to walk quietly. They know we carry a big stick and will swing it if forced to do so.

© June 2016 Howard David Epstein