Young leaders from the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt meet with their Israeli counterparts in a visit organized by the Israel-Is organization. (Itamar Eyal)
HOWARD EPSTEIN – LETTER FROM ISRAEL: Abraham Accords and Beyond
Last week the Israeli newspapers were as exercised as the British about the threats to Taiwan, aka the Republic of China, from its somewhat larger neighbour, the People’s Republic of China (“PRC”). One might think that the realisation that the PRC enjoys 9,596,961 km2 would be cause for its leader, Xi, to think “dayenu”; but no, he wants that little bit extra, and to “reunite” with the island of Taiwan, all 35,808 km2 of it. Possibly, Taiwan’s democratic system is too much of a continuing indictment of the mainland’s rather more repressive regime for Xi’s liking.
To Israelis this is not completely surprising, for the world’s sole Jewish state is still coveted as part of Arab and Moslem lands by most of the world’s 22 Arab states and 50 Moslem states. (There is some double counting here, of course). It seems that the signatories to the Abraham Accords have got over the emergence of Israel and its 21,000 km2 land area – as compared with around 30 million km2 of enemy, or former enemy, states – but, of course, Iran at least has not.
That is not the only similarity between Israel and Taiwan, and, in the following respect, South Korea: all three live with an existential threat from a neighbour armed with tens of thousands of missiles that could be unleashed at any moment. It is believed that Iran’s proxy, Hezbollah, has some 150,000 rockets ready for launching at Israel, whilst South Korea and Taiwan are similarly challenged.
The parallels do not end there. All three are thrusting, hi-tech, economically successful nations with motivated work and defence forces. Existential threats seem to bring out the best in, leverage the potential of and spur on to ever greater achievements the potential victims of momentary attack. (A few minutes’ research into all three threatened states will demonstrate their respective unusual records of success.)
It is not clear what can be done to secure the future of Taiwan. It is plain that the Americans cannot be counted upon, and certainly not whilst being led by a president well into his dotage. In any event, a full frontal attack on Taiwan over some 2,000 kilometres of ocean is unlikely. Xi appreciates that he can hollow out Taiwanese resistance by more over-flights than the islanders have pilots to cope with; most of Taiwan’s energy is imported and could be blockaded; its exports are to a greater degree than should give them comfort to China itself; and the landing of thousands of PRC paratroopers is a strong possibility. The might of the USA would be limited in dealing with such concerns.
South Korea is a different story. There are over 30,000 US troops stationed there, so it may be assumed that the power of the US would be engaged to resist fierce assaults from the otherwise utterly dysfunctional slave state to the north.
As for Israel, it has always asserted that it relies on no one else for its defence, it has the most capable air force in the world (with sortie turn-around times that would make the Mercedes Formula One pit team jealous), several layers of missile defence (and offence), submarines always at sea close to battle-station readiness and very short lines of communication for its greatly determined army.
That is not say that Israel has nothing to fear. It would take several, perhaps many, days to neutralise the Iranian rocket forces in southern Lebanon, and a huge amount of damage would be inflicted, and death visited, upon Israel in that time. It used to be said that, in retaliation, Israel would knock Lebanon back a couple of hundred years, but that threat now seems ineffectual, as Hezbollah have already reduced it to the status and conditions of a failed state – like Israel’s other neighbour, formerly a state known as Syria.
These are not issues about which the peoples of almost any other nation on earth feel they need to be concerned about. No. What they need to consider is the deleterious effect on Wall Street, the Footsie and the world’s fragile economy in the event of war in any of the three hotspots considered here. In other words, if Israel, Taiwan or South Korea is attacked, will anyone escape unharmed? At a time when inflation threatens, the printing of money can no longer be indulged in as though there will never be a day of reckoning and the world has to find a way to recover from the pandemic – which may not yet be over – can Europe, the UK and America pretend that they too are not threatened in some way by the aggressive natures of North Korea, China and Iran?
The answer, my friends, is blowin’ in the wind – and we have not even touched upon Iran’s possibly imminent nuclear breakout, or Russian adventurism as a reaction to domestic unrest.
Globalisation does not just mean all you could wish for Chanukah from China, via Amazon, at low, low prices. It also means that, if you suddenly feel uncomfortable at your proximity to the eastern Mediterranean or the South China Sea, I apologise, but you have just an inkling of what Taiwanese, South Koreans and Israelis live with day in and day out, although for you, thankfully, the threat is limited to your pocket.
© October 2021 – Howard Epstein
