HOWARD EPSTEIN: ISRAEL. WHY THE BEST IS YET TO COME
I finished last week’s column promising to explain why Israel’s best days are yet to come.
The country is already engaged in a multi-front war and there is the near certainty of massive escalation in the North, it being essential to deal decisively with Hezbollah in Lebanon, to enable 85,000 Israelis to return home. There will be hardships in the immediate future. The best days are indeed yet to come. How are these two statements compatible?
The greatest failure of the disgraced prime minister, Netanyahu, is not that he put his own interests before those of the nation, in seeking to alter the judicial system so as to provide absolution and pre-absolution for his misdeeds, past and future. Worse than that is not even his ignoring the Hamas plan, first provided to him in 2017, and executed as all now know with vicious glee by Hamas last October.
Those are tactical errors. The strategic error of the Netanyahu years was to believe that the self-declared genocidalists of Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran could be “contained”. The derivative noun is “containment” but that is merely a synonym for the disgraced proper definition of this policy: “appeasement”. We saw how that failed with Hitler. Stalin, too, thought that his five trade deals with the Nazis, between 1938 and 1939, would mean that Hitler would never go to war with Russia. Barbarossa, the code name for the greatest invasion force in history, proved the self-deception that sent Stalin into hiding and depression for ten days in June 1941.
Reputedly, the greatest national leader of our times, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, too, believes in containment through trade; and she had charmed and disarmed Putin such that he would not attack in a westward direction – and this continued even after he swallowed up Crimea in 2014. Shortly after her career ended, it also went up in smoke in Ukraine.
Bibi, dear sweet Bibi, who sweet-talked the Israeli nation into keeping him in almost continuous power for a generation, thought Israel’s enemies contained not, in the case of Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, with trade deals but with the ever-developing superiority of the IDF. That fell apart through the hubris that derived from over-emphasis on technology. Leaving young girls to monitor activity in Gaza, and then to ignore their warnings, is hubris; having no boots on the ground along the Gaza border is hubris; and not taking Hamas at their word – their charter calls for the genocide of the Jews, as did Mein Kampf – is hubris. That explains, or partially explains, the absence of any form of Israeli resistance on 7 October 2023, Shabbat Simchat Torah.
Since then, however, the world – and especially the militaries of the world – have seen in the IDF’s progression through Gaza a unity of activity from all its branches unequaled anywhere else in the world or in history. Israel’s prowess on the battlefield has been startling. One soldier can summon up strikes by army units, the navy, and the air force that hit with pinpoint exactitude as to both place and time.
What traditionally plagued all military activity in all wars was inter-service rivalry, where (for example) the British Army would not wish to be upstaged by the Royal Navy or the RAF. In the case of Israel, there is one service, fully coordinated (and legally advised as to the proposed action) in every aspect.
This does not mean the weeks and months ahead will be easy – just that there can be no doubt that Israel will prevail. This derives from two main strands: being in a state of war, and facing existential threats for 75 years means having to excel at everything you do. Israel is not the only case in point. Both South Korea and Taiwan have had, and have a, similar existence and both, like Israel, have developed accordingly. All three are centres of excellence, with focused societies and institutions, especially their military. All three have something else, also: the quality of their youth.
Three years of national service straight from school, the bonding that the girls and boys enjoy with one another, the opportunities for leadership experience and massive exposure to hi-tech systems change those kids (including the girls) into real men. (If you have not seen the video of the brilliant and super-admirable all-female tank crew that operated in the aftermath of 7 October, beg, borrow, or steal it, as your view of Israel is otherwise incomplete.)
I have, on the way to this point, partially explained why Israel’s best days are yet to come – superb young people, outfitted for the future and the world’s best military hardware, software and systems. Yet, there is more.
It is true that Israel is dependent on America, but it works the other way around, too. Yes, Iron Dome could not have been Israeli-built without American investment; but it was so manufactured and funded because the Americans knew that it would take them longer and cost them more if they built it. This leads to the realisation that even an isolationist President Trump (if that is what they are going to get in 2024) could not turn his back on Israel – on NATO, possibly, but Israel means too much to the Pentagon for its five-star generals to agree to the severing of very many links of which we know – that’s apart from those of which we have no clue – to allow such a fundamental policy shift.
Then factor in that Israeli missile and space prowess means that she can take out ICBMs in space (an Israeli first some three weeks ago), that she has all-seeing satellite systems in space and constant submarine patrols with nuclear-tipped cruise missiles, and you begin to see not only that if (heaven forbid) all the chips are down Israel will prevail. That explains not only the continuing strength of the shekel but also one reason for it is that Israel military exports will lead the economy to greater heights for years to come. (More next time.)
© HOWARD EPSTEIN – www. howard-epstein.com
