The agreement will have a negative effect on the possibility of regime change in Iran. The Iranian government has shown itself to be especially adept at quashing rebellion. Regime change is possible, but only if the present government loses the support of the disparate factions in the country. The present P5+1 agreement with Iran will ensure that the present government survives even longer.
My Thoughts on the P5+1 agreement with Iran.
The negotiations with Iran are intended to delay Iran’s entry into the nuclear club for only 10 to 15 years and diminish Iran’s break out time to only 1 year. That’s not nearly good enough. But it also does at least two other bad things. First, it diminishes the NPT (nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty) as a treaty that protects the world from nuclear proliferation since there was no punishment for Iran to renege on that treaty. Second, it frees Iran to sow death and destruction in the Middle East as it claws its way to hegemony. Iran started a bloody religious war between the Shia and the Sunni in the Middle East, and the US and the P5+1 are intending to lift the sanctions against Iran, which will only pour financial fuel onto the inferno. And for what? Iran will renege on its agreement with the US and the P5+1 anytime it sees fit to do so, when the US is sufficiently tied up in some other pressing issue, such as responding to Chinese aggression in Asia. Right now, Iran’s nuclear weapons capacity is not so important, it has plenty of conventional warfare to do to keep itself busy. But when Iran decides that it wants nuclear weapons, it will break out.
It’s interesting to think about how bald-faced Iran’s lies are. Iran claims its nuclear weapons capability is for peaceful uses. What does it intend use nuclear bombs for, to fry eggs?
Israel’s concern is that Iran has stated quite openly that it believes it has a religious obligation to destroy Israel and also that it has been developing a nuclear weapons capacity. It doesn’t take a lot of imagination to put those two things together; the nuclear weapons capacity is intended to destroy Israel (as well as to establish Shia dominance over the Sunni Arab world).
Essentially peaceful countries like Israel cannot use nuclear weapons. Although Israel probably has nuclear retaliation capabilities (we are told by experts), it will certainly not initiate a nuclear war. Iran, on the other hand, has said very openly that the Arab/Muslim world is large enough to absorb several nuclear strikes by Israel, but that Israel can’t survive even one nuclear strike. Since all the Islamist religious fanatics, including the leaders of Iran, have shown wanton disregard for human life, even Arab/Muslim lives, in their quest for attainment of fanatic religious goals, it is reasonable to assume that if Iran attains nuclear weapons capability it will want to use it to destroy Israel. But Israel can’t rely on its nuclear weapons to protect itself, it must use conventional force to destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons capability before Iran can start a nuclear war.
Iran is not a “rational actor” in the normal sense of the word. It is capable of using reason only with regard to furthering its religious goals. A nuclear retaliatory strike by Israel that sends successful Iranian martyrs (those who have successfully killed a lot of Jews) to heaven to get their rewards may not be that much of a threat.
My Thoughts on the P5+1 agreement with Iran.
