Barry Shaw: Trump, the Abraham Accords, and Gaza
With the clock ticking down to Donald J. Trump re-entering the White House as the 47th President of the United States, the same clock is also ticking down in Israel’s war against the last dregs of Hamas terrorists in Gaza.
Which begs the question. What is the best post-war solution for Gaza in the context of a fractious and dangerous Middle East?
Let’s look at a couple of proposed solutions.
The most quoted by diplomats, and those who consider themselves experts of the Middle East but live in a world completely divorced from the reality on the ground, is that the Palestinian Authority should control Gaza.
The reality is that a corrupt Fatah-PLO leadership in Ramallah does not represent a different world view from Hamas.
They are the unelected tip of a roiling, Hamas supporting, electorate. That is why they are unelected. They are too afraid of the outcome of a democratic election process, as indeed, the myopic international community should be.
According to all Palestinian polls, should there be an election Hamas would gain power in the West Bank. (https://www.pcpsr.org/en/node/991)
And yet, myopic – read “delusional”- foreign decision makers doggedly pursue a Palestinian state as the only game in town.
Really is entirely different as clear-eyed and bloodied Israelis, who live across the road from these determined killers, can tell you.
Therefore, the notion that a corrupt Palestinian leadership, currently paying permanent stipends to imprisoned killers, known as their ”Pay to Slay” reward scam, will somehow bring tranquility, prosperity and stability, to the area is a dangerous and unproven fallacy.
There is no benign Palestinian Authority working to bring about a new peaceful reality with Israel. They remain invested in and infested by the same deadly motivations that drive Hamas.
Their secret document, written by Arafat and Abas, calling for the staged destruction of “the Zionist entity” refers to Israeli Arabs as “Palestinians of the Interior.”
Any international recognition of a Palestinian state on the West Bank with Jerusalem as its capital is seen by them as the fortress from which to continue their ongoing obsession to eliminate Israel, as in their mantra of a Palestine “from the River to the Sea.”
Therefore, a Palestinian Authority should have no control over Gaza until it is proven that Hamas will not be at the heart of it. And, quite frankly, the world cannot wait until the PA is forced to hold an internationally monitored referendum among the Arabs under their authoritarian control.
In the meantime, they continue to miseducate (indoctrinate) their children into a world in which Israel does not exist and incite their teenagers in their summer camps (military training camps) where they are taught to use weapons in order to kill Jews, courtesy of United Nations organizations and funded by Western governments.
All this is documented and filmed by organizations such as the Center for Near East Policy and UN Watch.
What alternative proposals have there been for a better future for Gaza, if not under the Palestinian Authority?
Gazan history and the failures of the Palestinian Authority.
Gaza was controlled by Egypt until the 1967 war when Egypt was poised to invade Israel. Israel won that war and was left in control of a stateless Gaza.
Israelis began to flow into Gaza creating agricultural settlements and tourist centers. For a period, Gaza developed as a peaceful luxurious Mediterranean location.
In the mid-90’s, the Oslo Accords was supposed to herald peace between Israel and the Palestinians, but the Palestinian Authority, set up by Arafat’s Fatah Party, became a deceptive fig leaf representing nobody but the top Fatah establishment, after Fatah was utterly defeated by Hamas in their 2006 elections but refused to hand the reins of power over to this Palestinian jihadi Muslim Brotherhood entity.
There has not been any Palestinian national election for almost twenty years because the Fatah cronies know they will lose the popular vote to Hamas.
This divide resulted in a civil war in Gaza in 2007 in which Fatah members were killed and routed out of Gaza by Hamas.
Should Gaza be returned into the hands of Israel as originally intended in the settlement following the war imposed on Israel by Egypt.
During that short period, Israelis began to turn Gaza in an agricultural and tourist paradise.
But this didn’t last long and eventually Arik Sharon, the right wing Israeli Prime Minister, decided to forcefully evict thousands of Israelis from their homes in order to hand over the Gaza Strip to the Palestinians.
Despite the Israeli sacrifice, the Palestinians did not take advantage of Israel’s gesture and assistance in continuing to develop Gaza for their benefit and prosperity, Instead, they waged a brutal civil war for political dominance in which hundreds of Palestinians were killed as Hamas seized control.
The Fatah PA is not only detested in the West Bank, it is hated in Gaza.
Other non-solutions.
Perhaps Israel should be the one that rebuilds and controls Gaza. But I don’t want to see my grandchildren patrolling the streets of a Gaza with two million Arabs and a few thousand Jews.
There are some who propose easing Gaza into a Jewish majority by offering Gazans what they call humanitarian repatriation, offering Gazan families $250,000 and free flights to whichever destination they prefer.
These dreamers have yet to tell me who is going to donate the billions of dollars needed to succeed in this hallucination.
So, what is the best solution for the future of Gaza? That solution is my concept of a new Gaza for a new Middle East.
Gaza as an Abraham Accord Protectorate.
Gaza should be the model for what the Middle East should represent. A collective endeavor to show the region and the world what genuine cooperation looks like, and to do it in the form of an Abraham Accords Protectorate.
And the advent of a new President Donald Trump is the icing on that cake, the person to make it happen.
First, let’s look at protectorates. What are they, and do they succeed?
History is replete with shining examples not only of their success but how that model would work in the case of Gaza.
Protectorates:
There are many successful examples of small nations flourishing under the guidance and protection of larger democracies.
The United States has five protectorates ranging from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands to Guam and Samoa in the Pacific.
After the United States defeated Japan in World War Two, including the atomic annihilation of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan became a protectorate of the United States until America relinquished its control in 1952. This was done the drain out the warring philosophy wartime Japan. Today, Japan has become one of the most prosperous and peaceful Asian nations.
France has several protectorates including Guadeloupe, Guiana, Martinique, La Réunion, Mayotte, Saint-Barthélemy, and even several Polynesian islands. All peaceful and prosperous.
The United Kingdom has fourteen protectorates, known as UK Overseas Territories, perhaps the most famous being the Falkland Islands in which the British came to its defense when invaded by Argentina in 1982.
The status of Protectorates is recognized under international law and the specific relationship between the “Protectorate” and the “Protector” is set out under a treaty signed by both parties.
As a political and governing system, the concept of Protectorates has been successful in the past and is currently working well in the international arena.
In the case of Gaza, the “Protectors” will be the Abraham Accord countries with the important addition of Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia has clung to the condition of a formal peace with Israel on the establishment of a Palestinian state. This has delayed their active involvement for far too long. They can be persuaded to join the challenge and hope of Gaza becoming the role model for Palestinians living under a Ramallah leadership.
If a two-state solution is considered good, a three-state solution is even better.
In the future, the new State of Gaza can decide for itself whether to federate with Ramallah and the Palestinian Authority or become an independent Gazan state.
That choice will rest with the people and leadership of a new Gaza as they mature and develop into actual independent democratic rule. And, if it chooses, this self-governing entity can eventually be introduced into the United Nations, sponsored by the Abraham Accord protectors, as a new member nation.
The Implementation.
Egypt has a border with Gaza and will be a consultant and active partner. They too need assurance they will have a more peaceful and prosperous neighbor than the Hamas nightmare.
The peace and independence of Gaza will be protected by the active cooperation of its two neighbors, Israel and Egypt, with the help of the United States. All have vested interests in maintaining a peaceful Gaza.
To help Gaza develop into a modern entity, both Israel and the United States will supervise a future based educational system concentrating on languages, science, math, technology, business management, modern agricultural systems, and not on radical ideology.
The United States and Israel will develop a new curriculum for the new Gazan education system from elementary schools to universities designed to give the new generation of Gazans a brighter future.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE will construct new and grand mosques. They will employ the imams that will preach their moderate and respectful form if Islam. They will employ the teachers in the madrassahs.
There will be no United Nations control or management.
Gaza should develop technology and agricultural centers. It should develop a hotel and tourism infrastructure to become a new Mediterranean resort giving tourists access to Egypt to its west and Israel to its east.
In the past, Israel proposed a Gaza with an offshore airport, marina, and seaport with a connecting road and rail bridge to the mainland.
This ambitious project should be revived, and Gaza City should have a tourism and services-based economy.
The potential of Gaza as a demilitarized agricultural, light industry, and tourism economy with the potential of becoming a major hi-tech data center to the Arab world, is enormous.
Successful Israelis, such a Mellanox billionaire, Eran Waldman, once had a plan to build a hi-tech center in Gaza. That was before his daughter and her boyfriend were killed by Hamas terrorists at the Nova Festival on 7 October.
Given the backing of a regional partnership, entrepreneurs like Waldman could be encouraged to help create an oasis of regional cooperation in this once troubled place.
These projects will ensure gainful employment and prosperity for the people of Gaza.
But who would head this new independent entity?
Mohammad Dahlan.
It may come as a surprise to learn that Mohammad Dahlan, now a UAE billionaire, was born in Khan Younis, today the epicenter of Hamas’s last violent spasms in Gaza.
Dahlan received a BA in Business Administration from the Islamic University of Gaza.
A young Dahlan was arrested eleven times by Israel for his involvement as the Gaza leader of the Fatah youth movement.
After the signing of the Oslo Accords, Dahlan was made head of the Preventive Security Forces in Gaza. He built up a force of 20,000 men and became one of the most powerful Palestinian leaders, dealing regularly with the CIA and Israeli intelligence officials.
Dahlan angered Arafat in November 2001 by expressing dissatisfaction over Arafat’s lack of a coherent policy that would lead to a better future.
Even so, he employed tough measures against the radical elements in his society, which led him to be criticized by human rights groups for the methods he employed in his crackdowns on Islamic militants.
Divorcing himself from the anti-Israel terrorism of Arafat, he attempted to garner support for an electoral challenge to Arafat but, despite this he stepped back after the Bush administration demanded a change in PA leadership in July of the same year.
Dahlan was known to the Americans and Israelis. Prior to his resignation from the PA in June 2002, Dahlan was a member of negotiating teams for security issues in peace talks, even attending the Camp David Summit in 2000.
In 2006, Dahlan was elected to the Palestinian Legislative Council in the Palestinian legislative election as a representative for Khan Yunis in Gaza.
Dahlan took an increasingly tough stance against Hamas, calling their 2006 election victory a disaster and threatening to “haunt them from now till the end of their term.”
On December 14, 2006, gunmen attempted to assassinate Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh, and Hamas accused Dahlan of orchestrating that attack.
On January 7, 2007, Dahlan held the biggest-ever rally of Fatah supporters in the Gaza Strip, where he denounced Hamas as “a bunch of murderers and thieves.”
In response, Hamas accused Dahlan of bringing Palestinians to the brink of civil war.
In March 2007, despite objections from Hamas, Dahlan was appointed by Mahmoud Abbas to lead the newly re-established Palestinian National Security Council, overseeing all security forces in the Palestinian territories.
In April 2008, Vanity Fair revealed that, after the 2006 elections, Dahlan had been central in a U.S. plot to remove the democratically elected Hamas-led government from power.
According to the report, America provided money and arms to Dahlan, trained his men, and ordered him to carry out a military coup against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. However, the elected Hamas government forestalled the move and carried out their armed countercoup in a bloody civil war against the Fatah-PLO Palestinian Authority in Gaza and controlled it since.
In 2007, after resigning from his post as national security adviser, the Bush Administration exerted heavy pressure on Abbas to appoint Dahlan as his deputy.
In June 2011, Mahmoud Abbas saw Dahlan as a serious political rival and expelled him from the Fatah party on false claims that he had murdered Arafat.
Dahlan moved to the United Arab Emirates, where he made his fortune. He is today a billionaire and a respected close associate with the Crown Princes of the UEA, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia.
It is reported that Dahlan played a crucial role in crafting the Israel-UAE peace agreement.
Dahlan represented the leaders of the moderate Arab states in negotiating on their behalf in trouble spots in the Middle East and Africa.
If he returned to Gaza he would arrive as a hero and a savior. Although some elements may initially be resentful of his return, there is no doubt about his legitimacy to return to Gaza and Khan Younis, the place of his birth, in order to lead Gaza into a future of peace and prosperity based on his personal example.
He is a tough man who has no great love of Israel or the current Palestinian leadership, and he absolutely detests Hamas, but his loyalty to the UAE and Bahraini leaders should keep him in check, particularly with an enticing future role as the President of an independent State of Gaza ahead of him.
All this points to Mohammad Dahlan being the perfect candidate as the Senior Executive to head the new Gaza Abraham Accords project, and potentially to become the head of the future State of Gaza.
His brief should be to turn Gaza into a new independent state and a member of the United Nations. Gazans will have a Gazan identity and a Gazan passport.
This may upset myopic diplomats who have been dragging the dead camel of a two-state non-solution through the burning sands of the Middle East for far too long.
However, a comprehensive and new vision is needed, not just in Gaza, not just in Ramallah, but in the Middle East generally.
President Donald Trump.
It is highly unlikely that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman would take the courageous initiative to join Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, in such an important venture without the over-arching protection of President Donald Trump, the bold initiator of the Abraham Accords.
But the election of Donald Trump heralds the hope that a new Middle East can take yet another bold step in the right direction with Gaza as the model for a peaceful and prosperous new future.
Conclusion.
Gaza as an Abraham Accords project and protectorate could be the model for a new Middle East.
In that future, when Gazans have developed their skills under the guidance of its Abraham Accord partners, and are able to develop their own democratic government, they can decide for themselves whether to remain independent, or join a confederation with either the PA, Israel, or both.
The Gazan success can become the model for a failed PA regime in Ramallah, a dishonest and corrupt regime that should be allowed to wither on the vine until they are willing to find a leadership not bent on indoctrination to an end of Israel or rewarding murderers of Jews.
Gazans, Palestinians, can no longer be led by those wedded to a regressive hatred. It needs moderate regional leaders and original thinkers to imagine and forge a new and better future.
Diplomats and professional “experts” bleated about a two-state solution for half a century. They failed, utterly, because they were wrong, dead wrong, in their perception of deceptive Palestinian leaders who never, for a moment, wanted two-states. They wanted one Palestinian state From the River to the Sea.
So why not try a three-state solution?
Or a successful Gaza can decide for itself, or with its partners, if it remains an independent state, or eventually replace the decrepit PA cronies and extend its territory, with Israel’s approval, to that governed from Ramallah.
This, surely, is a better vision than a half-century two-state failure.
A new Gaza heralds a new Middle East under the promise and protection of an Abraham Accords Protectorate.
Barry Shaw,
Israel Institute for Strategic Studies.
