Even though the conflict in Syria between its government and people seems to be in a quiet phase at the moment, the violence it is still going on and there is no apparent conclusion
By Yoram Getzler
Even though the conflict in Syria between its government and people seems to be in a quiet phase at the moment, the violence it is still going on and there is no apparent conclusion. One of the often stated reasons for the stalemate and lack of express western / UN intervention is the uncertainty of who is really behind the anti-Assad forces and who will benefit if and when he looses control. The call of Ayman al-Zawahiri, Osama bin-Laden’s successor as head of Al-Qaida, exhorting support for the opposition groups in Syria, presages his choice for a radical Taliban-type government in Syria modeled on the Afghan regime of the late 1990s. Is this the optimistic future we envision for Syria? Al-Qaida along with the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood seem like the most likely to benefit form any new governmental formation.
But not withstanding those points of confusion there are several other important & complex forces at work there.
As with most of the “Arab Spring” countries Syria is predominantly a Muslim nation. That is to say the powerful all encompassing culture of Arabic Islam determines most of the cultural substructure within the boundaries of the country, with little difference of individual beliefs or religious loyalties. This in itself is a dangerous construct. As Islam has not undergone a Renaissance or enlightenment as has the European culture the community is still enclosed by the concept of authority outside the individual. That expresses itself in a variety of ways. The patriarchal family; the one national unquestionable supreme authority, whether individual or party; the institutional repression of individuals and their potential disagreements or differences with the national authority. And the lack of legitimacy of “other” opinions or values in all layers of the society. All these contributes a significant barrier to a functional culture of democracy. So I suspect the inertia will be for “more of the same” in the form of another, tho perhaps different authoritarian governing authority.
As I mentioned when talking about the challenges facing Egypt, (https://israelseen.com/2012/
It seems that for several years now Syria’s main food growing area, north of Damascus in the area of the legendary Euphrates river has been suffering a double difficulty. The natural rain fall has been far short of previous averages which were the basis for agricultural planning. To add to that natural problem that most famous of rivers, the Euphrates of legend has been providing less water (and to Iraq as well) as the up stream authority, Turkey, makes efforts to take greater advantage of one of its main natural resources. The result is that all in all the country’s total water resources dropped by half between 2002 and 2008, additional reasons being; waste and overuse, scientists and water engineers say. This was while spending $15 billion on misguided irrigation projects between 1988 and 2000 . This is a phenomenon now being experienced by countries from Mexico to India & Pakistan as “up river” countries such as the USA and China take additional advantage of their natural resources, before they can cross national boundaries. In addition Syria spent billions more wasted on armaments theoretically to fight the Zionist neighbors.
As difficult as these shared experiences are for the countries loosing out on water that for centuries had been for centuries taken for granted. Water that had come flowing down from up river, from “above”, regardless of national boundaries or political conflicts. For a country like Syria, with existential internal conflict on a daily basis the added crisis of drought caused migration by some 50,000 families from over one hundred abandoned rural agricultural villages now living as internal refugees in city slums only makes a difficult situation even more destructive and catastrophic.
For the Syrian people these past months of internal conflict have not helped an already weak economy. The little oil Syria has been extracting and using is all but used up. It is also the economy, stupid, in Syria as well. The tourism industry as you can imagine has not benefited from the years violence. (Not in Egypt either). In all these democratic revolutions unemployed youth made up a large segment of the dissatisfied demanding change.
Unlike Egypt, Syria is populated by a variety of peoples and ethnic communities. These include Semitic Assyrians, Arabs, a few Jews and Druze (3%); along with the non-Semitic Kurds and Turks. The Kurdish people alone make up 10% of the population, Both the Kurds & Druze are segments of large minority population spread out in the area where Israel/Syria/Turkey/Iraq & Iran converge. Each group has its distinctive language, customs, and traditions; in the history of each community are memories of past persecution and massacre. A profound conflict in Syria not found in Egypt or Tunisia has been the subjection of the Sunni majority by the Alawi minority. The ruling Alawis are only 10% of the population. They are a from of Sh’ite’ism in a country where the vast majority of the Muslims are Sunni, which may explain the closeness of the Alawi Syrian government to that of Sh’ite Iran. This brings the age old internal Islamic conflict between the majority Sunni and minority Sh’ite directly into this modern political power conflict.
The Alawi population, after ruling the majority Sunnis for several decades, have good reason to fear a massacre if their patrons the Assad family were to loose power. There are over a million Alawis, men, woman and children. Where will they go, how many will succeed in fleeing safely from the pent up wrath of the subjected Sunni majority. There were even rumors that some may seek refuge here in Israel.
I think that a real concern is that in all the states that have experienced a struggle towards “democracy”, a better life, and a life without authoritarian governments may instead, well lead into a series of failed states. By failed state I mean a state that can not provide its citizens basic physical safety from others who would take what they want. Where there is no assess to fulfill basic needs for sustenance. And access to minimum medical care.
Therefore, taking the emphasis on “democracy” and political change in effect ignores the truly desperate physical, economic situation Syria faces no matter what the outcome of the current conflict.
