By Yoram Getzler
Abbas/Obama Law of Unintended Consequences
The developing Abbas catastrophe is another indication of the enormity of the Obama policy disaster. And/or is it an expression of the mistaken policy proposals of his advisors, principally David Axelrod, Rahm Emanuel and the other “born Jews” close to his administration along with J Street and their supporters?
On the one hand it could be no more than the Law of Unintended Consequences at work. Only that it may well be expanded if someone close to the president does not alert him to these dangers.
What I call the Abbas catastrophe; after the Obama policy demand that Israel halt ALL settlement building, could Abbas have demanded less? Then just as Obama appears able to demonstrate more flexibility on the issue, because as the president of the USA he can, Abbas can not and he finds himself up against several other profound policy dilemmas. Agreeing to hold his fire on Goldstone at the reported urging of the Americans, his long standing weakness relative to Hamas, the knowledge that he can not possibly expect Netanyahu to be more generous than Olmert whose offers he already rejected, all these contributed to his announcement that he was declaring the peace process a failure.
And guess whose fault it is? Olmert for offering him too many concessions? The Palestinians for rejecting everything if they do not get everything? You can bet the guilt will not fall on the Palestinians. Although the full 100% responsibility for this mess is not only that of Obama, his contribution can not be ignored. Especially as the possibility for a repetition is more than likely as long as the same people are advising the American president we are most likely to see this theme and variation of the tough love, do for them what they need but can not, will not, do for themselves approach to Israel.
The disaster continues into the future in part because the person, hand picked by Abbas at the last Fatah conference in Bethlehem 2009, to accede to his position as leader of the “moderate” Palestinian camp, is Muhammad “Abu Maher” Ghneim who had refused to return to “Palestine” until it was totally liberated. Only he is NOT a moderate. He was against Arafat and the Oslo accords. This moderate promises to bring a hard edge to the interactions between Israel and the Palestinian Authority.
Right now as Netanyahu prepares to meet Obama the US president has a last chance to come out a winner with the Palestinians and the Arab world. All he needs is a threat NOT to use the American veto in the Security Council regarding Goldstone therby sending the report to the International Criminal Cort, unless he gets his unilateral building freeze…will he use his trump card?
Can any good be salvaged from his weighty mistaken policy demands.
