Prof. Sam Lehman-Wilzig: The Iran War: Everyone is Winning and Losing
Unlike ball games where there’s a clear winner and loser, war isn’t like that – except in soccer/“football” where a tie can occur. In that case, both teams can be a “winner” (or “loser”) depending on their situation vis-à-vis other clubs. The war in Iran is an excellent example of the latter, with everyone winning and losing. Here’s how and why.
Two prefatory points: A) Many specific country “wins” entail a “loss” (or vice versa) for another country or countries. B) For the sake of brevity I will only outline the main point/s for each, given the many players involved.
Israel – WIN: 1- Iran’s nuclear program has been set back several years; 2- The mullah’s regime, already enfeebled by sanctions and massive protests, is now so weak that it will be very hard to continue funding Hezbollah, Israel’s northern enemy; 3- Israel’s military technology has proven to be highly efficient, further boosting its critical export industry; 4- (See GULF STATES below). LOSE: 1) Israel’s popularity among the American public is steadily declining, even more significantly among many American Jews (especially Democrats); 2) Israelis are now even more mentally exhausted from a difficult decade (Covid; Oct. 9 and ensuing 2-year war against Hamas; June 2025 Campaign; the present missile barrage); 3) Heavy economic burden to rebuild destroyed housing and infrastructure; 4) The public is split even more than usual, mainly because of the Haredi (non)draft issue – a deep sore point especially for the hundreds of thousands of reserve soldiers, many of whom have spent many months away from work and family.
America – WIN: 1- Its military might is on full display – no paper tiger here; 2- President Trump’s willingness to attack Iran (reinforcing his general unpredictability) in defense of Israel (among other reasons), will give China deeper reservations about attacking Taiwan, given the latter’s centrality for America’s computer (AI etc.) economy. LOSE: 1) Rising oil prices furthers inflation (transportation, food, heating) in the U.S. (other non-oil countries as well); 2) The public here too is becoming even more divided than usual, given growing anti-war sentiment (a huge “LOSE” for Trump and his party that’s crashing in the polls); 3) Loss of prestige and possibly also influence among the Gulf countries, as the U.S. military “umbrella” has not prevented Iran from causing serious damage to their economy.
Iran – WIN: 1- The greatest power on Earth (America) along with one of the strongest nations militarily (Israel) have not been able to force the country to sue for peace despite the former’s massive efforts; the regime still stands, with a continuing (albeit weakened) ability to fire missiles at neighboring countries; 2- Higher oil prices internationally has doubled Iran’s oil revenues and strengthened the Revolutionary Guard. LOSE: 1) Destruction of its military capabilities: air force, navy, military industries; 2) Demolition of petrochemical factories, the main source of the country’s already seriously declining economy; 3) Ongoing decapitation of its leadership; 4) Making new outright enemies of its Arab neighbors who (before the war) were trying to remain neutral. LOSE/WIN: Destruction of civilian infrastructure has increased already high unemployment, now above 50% (!) – leading to higher rates of voluntary army service (with pay) that strengthens the regime.
Russia – WIN: 1- As an oil and gas exporter, rising oil prices are an economic boon; 2- See “Europe” below regarding NATO. LOSE: 1) As an ally of Iran, it hasn’t been able to provide much help – a paper tiger; 2) See Ukraine below.
Ukraine – WIN: 1- Its drone prowess and increasing experience in air defense resulting from the war with Russia has brought in rich Gulf countries purchasing Ukraine’s drones and know-how, providing critical cash for its continued struggle with the Great Bear. LOSE: 1) The world’s attention is now completely focused on Iran, so that it is becoming increasingly difficult to receive aid from Europe and the United States in its fight with Russia.
China – WIN: 1- Its biggest competitor and adversary (the U.S.) has lost much prestige around the world, especially among its allies in Europe, for starting this war; 2- The Iran war is becoming extremely unpopular among Americans, so Trump would have to think five times about going to war with China (barring a direct attack on American soil); Taiwan could be left defenseless; 3- Sales of Chinese electric vehicles and solar panels have increased dramatically with world oil prices surging. LOSE: 1) The destruction of Iran’s petrochemical factories means that in the future China loses its major supplier of oil; 2) Like Russia, its non-official friendly “alliance” with Iran also displays “paper tiger” characteristics – proving to other potential allies of China that in a crunch it’s not much help.
Europe – WIN: 1- Greater security coordination among European nations with the possible demise of NATO (see “LOSE” immediately following); 2- As a result (already starting with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine), strengthening the continent’s military capabilities. LOSE: 1) Much higher energy prices due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz; 2) Perhaps a “final” rupture with the U.S. i.e., the end of NATO.
Gulf States – WIN: 1- End of neutrality and the start of ever-wider security arrangements with each other and with Israel; 2- More future oil sales given Iran’s production wipeout. LOSE: 1) Major destruction of oil refineries (Iran fired far more missiles at the Gulf States than at Israel); 2) Significant tourism decline and foreign high-tech workers reluctant to live in a newly dangerous region.
The World – WIN: 1- Greater incentive to replace oil with alternative energy sources. LOSE: 1) Short-term return to coal with oil stuck in the Gulf; 2). Higher inflation all around; 3) Greater uncertainty and instability in international relations (the Trump “wild card” effect).
Finally, the “elephant in the room”: Iran’s nuclear program. Iran “wins” as its 440 kilograms (half a ton!) of enriched material (60%, not 90%) is still within its borders; it “loses” because that nuclear stuff is buried under tons of destroyed mountain topsoil (and who knows what else) – getting it out will take a herculean effort, with American and Israeli spy planes on close watch. For Israel, it’s the reverse: it “loses” because the uranium has not been moved out of Iran; it “wins” because the stuff is inaccessible to Iran for a long time, not to mention (as above) the almost total destruction of the various plants necessary to make the “Bomb.”
Everything here is provisional. As the famous American baseball player Yogi Berra once put it: “it ain’t over until it’s over.” In war, though, even its “conclusion” doesn’t necessarily mean it’s “really over.” The ultimate winners and losers will only become clear in the longer-term future. Stay tuned.
