Yoram Getzler
A few weeks ago David Kimche, former director general of our Foreign Ministry, and previous to that an agent for the Mossad wrote an article in the Jerusalem Post explaining why Syria might be truly interested in making peace with us. (http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1211434083716&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull <http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1211434083716&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull> )
Mostly it had to do with the antipathy of its Sunni Muslims population regarding the Shia- Iranians with whom they are now embraced.
I thought it an interesting and reasonable argument.
NOW on further consideration and thought regarding the Iranian nuclear developments, his arguments seem much less compelling.
I believe that there is NO way Israel alone can tackle the Iranian nuclear challenge with a reasonable probability of success.
The underground facilities would require repeated bombing in order to reach the buried facilities that need to be destroyed, if Iran is to be delayed in its weapons program. We simply do not have the air power necessary for the required continual sorties. Knowing the exact targets would make our aircraft extremely venerable to anti-aircraft defenses, from both A.A. missile and rapid repeating cannon fire. We may be ready to sacrifice our air crews but our limited aircraft roster will be a real handicap.
Timing is everything. The next US president may not be willing to contribute the agreements necessary by America’s commander-in-chief needed for such a mission. The possibility that the current lame duck president, George Bush might go for it! as a final statement of his presidency is truly terrifying. Although America, and only America has the physical wherewithal to attempt the daunting task, the (non-nuclear) fall out from such an attack would be felt especially here in Israel. Obviously at this point Bush would have absolutely no support internationally for such an attack.
This leaves us with a number of questions, and a few assumptions.
Concerning Syria; why in the world would they, or any other country realign its loyalty at this point in the grand game to a limping, wounded and bleeding America from a Jihadist up and coming nuclear power right next door.
Economically America is not a very attractive ally, militarily they are already over extended, diplomatically they have been neutered by the Iraq war, and internationally they exhibit no willingness to make the difficult decisions necessary to project power. Russia and China are able to run wild…Switzerland, in the very heart of Europe fulfills its own private economic road to riches scheme.
The price of oil, the Iranian liquid diamonds is in the ascendancy, the US & Europe can do nothing.
That makes the entertaining but useless noise around a peace deal with Syria rather superficial.
In fact I believe that it is our presence on the Golan that is the best guarantor of a continued state of non-war with our neighbors.
