Yoram Getzler
Barry Rubin reports that Iranian war ships have visited the Saudi port of Jeddah the main Saudi Read Sea port and just a few kilometers from Mecca. A long way from (their) home. This is just a few miles across the international water way from the Egyptian Sudanese boarder, and a short distance from the Suez Chanel.
In a real sense it is the shortest distance, on the way from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean;
With the rise of a pro-Iranian Islamist Hezbollah government in Lebanon I would not be surprised to see an Iranian navel support base developing at one of the Lebanese harbors. Probably the port of Tripoli, 85K north of Beirut. That would be out of immediate international public view if that was a consideration, and within easy commuting distance to the international airport and just a few kilometers south of overly friendly Syria.
Along with the news of Iran having successfully tested a new anti-ship missile the entire strategic situation in the Mediterranean changes.
For many years now the United States Navy in collaboration with other NATO Navel forces have had a monopoly of power in the Mediterranean. We can include Israel in this context. After all for us, the Mediterranean is the major route of our trade. The projection of Muslim/Arab power via accurate vessele mounted anti-ship missiles or from along the Eastern Mediterranean coast, coupled with a serious navel presence in the sea itself, raises the danger level for Europe, American and Israeli freedom of trade.
Now that covers Islam/Iran westward.
There is also Islam/Iran eastward, to Pakistan and whats new and threatening there:
Be aware of dangerous/threatening developments from/by Pakistan
The news is that Pakistan had doubled its nuclear arsenal in the past four years. Lets not forget that during the past five years Pakistan has suffered severe population distress and dislocation. Partly due to purely human activity that is to say; avoidable disasters. The battles the Pakistani army has fought with the various Islamist anti-government forces (Taliban/al-Quida). There were also several natural; unavoidable disasters.
First, it was the October 2005 earthquake that mauled large parts of northern Pakistan, Then came the floods this summer, washing away whatever recovery they had made in the past five years. While millions have suffered and continue to suffer from these blows, while lack of funds for rebuilding has caused untold suffering of the population, with the accompanying loss of credibility to the civilian government, there seems to be plenty of money for development of offensive military capability.
Yet somehow the government found the time and resources to double its nuclear arsenal from 30 to 60 weapons to over one hundred. This information comes from the reliable Federation of American Scientists and the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS). That marks Pakistan as the worlds fifth largest nuclear power, greater than Britain or France.
As for the necessary and expensive reliable delivery systems, according to The Washington Post, Pakistan has developed nuclear-capable land- and air-launched cruise missiles. Its Shaheen II missile, with a range of 2,400 kilometers, is about to go into operational deployment.
All this is happening in a country on the verge of social physical and economic collapse. Pakistan has just been approved for $7.5 billion US civilian aid package plus $2 billion more for its military. That is $9.5 to a country that can afford to develop and expand its nuclear weapons stockpile and invest in a very sophisticated delivery system.
While there are groups protesting American aid to Israel, a legitimate response could be the aid to Pakistan, a country that does not even pretend to be a friend of the US, much less embody the American values.
